How the AfD’s Pro-Russian Stance is Reshaping East German Politics
Alex Blackburn | 10 September 2024
Summary
The AfD is gaining strong support in East Germany, driven by frustration with mainstream parties and policies.
Concerns are rising over the AfD's pro-Russian stance, aligning with Moscow's narratives on Ukraine.
The AfD's success could challenge Germany's political status quo and boost Russia's influence in Europe.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is experiencing a significant and troubling surge in popularity, particularly in the eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg. These regions, which have long struggled with the economic and social fallout of reunification, are now emerging as strongholds for the far-right party. The AfD's rise in these areas is fueled by a complex interplay of socio-economic grievances, disillusionment with the outcomes of reunification, and widespread opposition to national policies on immigration, climate change, and Germany’s military support for Ukraine. A particularly alarming aspect of the AfD’s platform is its overtly pro-Russian stance, which resonates strongly in parts of East Germany where scepticism towards the West and a nostalgic view of the Soviet era still linger. The party has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia, criticised Germany’s support for Ukraine, and echoed Kremlin narratives that place blame on NATO for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
This alignment with Russian interests is not merely rhetorical but supported by tangible connections that have raised serious concerns both within Germany and internationally. Investigations have revealed financial ties between senior AfD figures and Russian operatives, along with communications suggesting coordinated efforts to undermine Germany's stance on Ukraine. These connections suggest that the AfD's pro-Russian orientation may be part of a broader strategy by Moscow to influence German politics and weaken European unity. In Thuringia, the party's leadership, under the controversial figure Björn Höcke, has been particularly vocal in its praise for Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian governance model. Höcke, who has a history of using Nazi-era rhetoric, has openly advocated for a European security arrangement that includes Russia, a position that effectively legitimises Moscow’s aggressive actions in Ukraine and undermines the West’s collective security efforts. This pro-Russian stance reflects not just ideological alignment but also a strategic move by the AfD to tap into local grievances in East Germany, where economic disparities and a sense of marginalisation since reunification remain stark.
The implications of the AfD’s rise are profound for Germany and the broader European context. Domestically, the party’s growing popularity underscores the deep and enduring divide between East and West Germany, raising serious concerns about national cohesion. The AfD’s success in these regions highlights the persistent economic and social disparities that have plagued the former East since reunification, and it threatens to exacerbate these divides further. This polarisation could lead to increased social unrest and weakening efforts to integrate the Eastern states fully into the broader national identity. The AfD’s exploitation of these regional grievances has the potential to fracture Germany's political landscape further, leading to a more polarised and unstable political environment.
On the international stage, the AfD's pro-Russian stance poses significant risks to Germany’s role within NATO and the European Union. As the party gains influence, particularly in the European Parliament, there is a growing concern that it could shift Germany's foreign policy away from its traditional support for a united and democratic Europe. The AfD’s opposition to sanctions against Russia and its criticism of Germany's support for Ukraine are aligned with Kremlin interests, and if the party continues to gain power, it could weaken the European response to Russian aggression. This potential shift in German foreign policy could have far-reaching implications, not only for the security of Europe but also for the broader transatlantic alliance.
Furthermore, the AfD's rise could embolden other far-right, pro-Russian movements across Europe, further fracturing European unity at a time when a strong and coordinated response to Russian aggression is crucial. The AfD’s success serves as a stark warning of the dangers of foreign influence in domestic politics and the unresolved tensions from Germany’s reunification that continue to shape its political landscape. The party’s ability to tap into and exploit local grievances in East Germany highlights the need for a renewed focus on addressing the root causes of discontent in these regions. Without such efforts, Germany's political stability could be further undermined, with serious implications for both the country and the broader European project.
Taibhseoir/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term
Following the recent elections, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured a historic victory in Thuringia, winning nearly a third of the vote and surpassing the CDU by a significant margin. This success, coupled with a strong second-place finish in Saxony, has emboldened the party’s anti-immigration platform and its criticism of Germany’s support for Ukraine. Although other parties have refused to form coalitions with the AfD, their newfound power in Thuringia grants them significant influence, particularly on issues requiring a two-thirds majority. The election results are expected to intensify political fragmentation in Germany, leading to deeper divides and more contentious debates, especially regarding immigration and foreign policy.
Long-term
If the AfD's influence continues to grow, particularly with its strong foothold in the East, Germany's political landscape could shift dramatically. While they remain isolated from forming government coalitions, their ability to block key legislative changes in Thuringia could destabilise governance in the region. Nationally, the AfD's rise signals a growing challenge for mainstream parties ahead of the federal elections. On the international front, the AfD’s pro-Russian stance and opposition to arms supplies for Ukraine could gradually shift the political narrative in Germany, reducing the country’s support for NATO’s efforts in Eastern Europe. This could also inspire similar far-right movements across Europe, weakening the European Union's united front against Russian aggression. The long-term implications could further polarise Germany and Europe, with potentially destabilising consequences.