Gold & Aid: The Lootable Resources Fuelling the Sudanese Civil War
Sam White | 17 April 2024
Summary
The civil conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Security Forces (RSF) is becoming increasingly intractable as the country’s humanitarian crisis worsens.
Both sides are restricting access to humanitarian aid and using aid to exert control over the desperate civilian population.
Kleptocratic rival forces SAF and RSF compete for control of the country's gold industry – a main source of funds for both military forces.
As the civil war in Sudan approaches its first anniversary, international calls for an immediate ceasefire have so far failed to deter the warring parties. Approximately eight million civilians have been displaced because of the conflict, of which two million have left the country entirely. Most of these refugees have fled into neighbouring Chad and South Sudan – putting further strain on these already fragile states. According to the United Nations, the conflict is rapidly precipitating the world's worst hunger crisis. 18 million people in Sudan, seven million in South Sudan, and nearly three million in Chad all face acute food insecurity because of the conflict. As the world focuses on conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, requests for humanitarian aid by the UN have been met with a meagre response. The 2023 Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan only achieved 45% of its funding target. Contributions to this year's budget are unlikely to improve on this figure - just 5.4% of the target has been contributed thus far.
Equally, a key factor exacerbating the humanitarian crisis is access. Predictably, areas where fighting is most intense are also the areas where food insecurity is most acute. As a result, NGOs are struggling to access these areas for logistical reasons and safety concerns. However, beyond these challenges, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Security Forces (RSF) have been accused of weaponising humanitarian aid. SAF has been accused of repeatedly denying the distribution of aid to areas not under their control. Similarly, the aid that reaches RSF-controlled areas is being looted and tightly controlled by the RSF to control and garner tacit support from civilians. The weaponisation and control of humanitarian aid in this way are likely to continue as each side attempts to leverage the humanitarian crisis to their advantage by exerting control over the vulnerable and desperate civilian population.
Beyond the control of humanitarian aid, both sides are exploiting Sudan’s lucrative gold resources to fund their military activities. Crucially, Sudan does not have the domestic arms and weapons manufacturing capability to sustain the current conflict. As a result, gold has provided both sides with a valuable lootable resource to export in exchange for arms. The artisanal and decentralised nature of Sudanese gold processing makes it easy to coopt and take control of. Equally, gold is easy to smuggle and hard to trace. The RSF have taken advantage of this and have been accused of illegally smuggling gold out of the country to fund their military activities. Allegedly, much of this gold is finding its way to the UAE in exchange for arms and ammunition. It’s likely that the longer this funding mechanism is available to the RSF, the longer the war will continue.
AU UN IST Photo/Tobin Jones
Forecast
Short-term: It is highly likely that efforts to mediate a sustained ceasefire in Sudan over the next few months will fail as international actors are distracted by other conflicts and neighbouring powers continue to benefit from the conflict.
Medium-term: The longer the war lasts, the worse the humanitarian crisis will become. The number of people leaving the country will likely continue to rise in the coming months, putting pressure on neighbouring states and possibly fuelling the migrant crisis and the movement of people to Europe.
Long-term: It is highly likely that both sides will maintain their kleptocratic grip on Sudan’s economy to both control the civilian population and fund their military activities. This is a structural issue that is unlikely to change in the coming years.
