After Hasina: India-Bangladesh Fallout
Chongtham Sen Chanu | 2 June 2025
RaviC/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA 4.0
Summary
The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus experienced a tit-for-tat trade restriction between India and Bangladesh, reversing years of foreign policy led by the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) are critical of Hasina’s strategic alignment with India. So, the possible outcome of Bangladesh’s upcoming general election is unfavourable for the India-Bangladesh relationship since the Awami League is banned from contesting elections.
While India will likely increase development activities in its northeastern region to reduce dependency on Bangladeshi land routes, a post-election Bangladesh will aim for a China-aligned foreign policy to reduce dependency on India’s economy.
After Sheikh Hasina was ousted from her office on 5 August 2024, an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus was formed on 8 August 2024. Hasina’s Awami League has been in power for 15 years since 2009, but her ruling has often been slammed as autocratic, with the alleged election rigging and crackdowns on journalists. During Hasina’s reign, India enjoyed a close political tie with Bangladesh in the areas of security, connectivity, and diplomacy. However, this alignment underwent a drastic turn after Yunus was sworn into office. The diplomatic row started in late November 2024 when Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) objected to the ongoing fencing work along the India-Bangladesh border by India’s Border Security Force (BSF). The 4,096 km long porous border between the two countries facilitates cross-border crimes, such as narcotics smuggling, human trafficking and illegal migration. Bangladesh summoned the Indian High Commissioner to express concern over the BSF border fencing as “unauthorised.” India counter-summoned Bangladesh’s Acting High Commissioner and asserted, “India observed all protocols and agreements” for the fencing work.
The diplomatic row escalated after Yunus remarked that India’s seven northeastern states are “landlocked” and Bangladesh is the “only guardian of the ocean for this entire region.” This remark was made during Yunus’s four-day visit to China in March 2025, where he called for “an extension of Chinese economy” in the ocean region where Dhaka is the “only guardian.” Following this remark, India suspended the transhipment facility in April 2025 that allowed Bangladesh to export goods to third countries via Indian airports and ports, citing logistical challenges. Only days later, Dhaka restricted yarn imports from India via its land ports. The reciprocal trade restrictions continued when India imposed a blanket land entry ban for some Bangladeshi goods in May 2025. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative, India’s restriction affected GBP 568m (USD 770m) worth of imports from Dhaka. The diplomatic rift indicates a regional strategic shift for Bangladesh towards Islamabad and Beijing.
End of Yunus’ Rule and Bangladesh Election
After Yunus assumed office, he lifted the ban on JeI, a Bangladeshi political party whose leaders were convicted of war crimes against pro-independence Bengalis in 1971. This revocation allows JeI to resume contesting in the nation’s election after its 2013 ban. Following this, Bangladesh resumed trade with Islamabad for the very first time since 1971. JeI’s alignment with Pakistan’s interests has always been open and vocal. Under Yunus, JeI strengthened its advocacy for a stronger Bangladesh-Pakistan alliance, leveraging anti-India sentiment to undo Hasina’s foreign policy. Amidst this development, Bangladeshi Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman pushed the interim government to hold the long-awaited general election by December 2025. However, Yunus’ office proposed a later date around June 2026, citing other institutional responsibilities. This proposal is opposed by the BNP, while JeI supports Yunus’ decision.
BNP enjoys popular support from Bangladeshi nationals while JeI exercises limited influence. In the upcoming election, BNP stands a stronger chance of winning than JeI. However, JeI enjoys some form of ideological alignment under Yunus’ policies. Hence, it is in JeI’s interest to support Yunus’ decision to delay the election. As the Awami League was disqualified from contesting elections, the BNP is anticipated to be the winning party. Concerning India, whether the BNP or JeI wins the election will hardly make much difference. Both the political parties have been avid critics of Hasina’s strategic alliance with India. BNP views Beijing as a partner who can assist in reducing its reliance on India and counter India’s dominant presence in South Asia. If elected, BNP’s priority will be China and further implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Bangladesh. This possible shift was expressed by a senior BNP leader during an 11-day visit to China. Both BNP and JeI prefer China’s economic leverage through BRI and Pakistan’s diplomatic backing, making a pro-India shift improbable after Hasina’s departure. The trend normalised by Yunus against India will likely continue post-election. Despite the ongoing internal reforms, Bangladesh’s electoral platform lacks engagement with India, indicating continuity in Yunus’ strategic distancing from New Delhi.
Indian Government Press Information Bureau
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is likely that India will increase its development plans for its north-eastern region to reduce dependency on Bangladesh for connectivity. India heavily relies on Bangladesh’s land routes to access its northeastern states, aside from the Siliguri Corridor within India.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
It is almost certain that Yunus will hold the pending general election in Bangladesh. As for the outcome, BNP will likely turn out victorious without the rivalry of the Awami League. Consequently, the future of the India-Bangladesh relationship is not as promising as it was with Hasina. Thus, increased China’s influence is on the horizon for the Bangladeshi foreign policy in the near future.
