2024 United Kingdom General Elections: Labour Landslide - The Nuances of Change
Harry Glover | 9th July 2024
Summary
Labour won 412 out of 650 seats in the UK General Election on 4th July 2024, giving them a majority of 174. Despite the vast mandate Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer has acquired, Labour only secured 33.7% of the vote share.
The extreme unpopularity of the Conservative party played an important factor in Labour’s victory. Much of the electorate tactically voted for centrist Liberal Democrat candidates. Others opted for the more hard-right Reform UK, which won 4 seats despite securing 14% of the vote share.
Starmer will look to leverage his landslide majority to realise his manifesto pledges, whilst battling with the growing influence of the far-right within the opposition in parliament.
Sir Keir Starmer was elected with a majority of 174 parliamentary seats on the 4th July 2024, becoming just the 4th Labour leader to win an election and become the Prime Minister from the opposition, the last being Tony Blair in 1997. Despite Labour winning 412 out of the 650 parliamentary seats, the vote share of 33.7% indicates a weak approval rating for Starmer. It demonstrates the shifting preferences of the electorate to more right-leaning ideologies. Reform UK, led by right-wing populist Nigel Farage, secured 14% of the vote share, although this only translated to four parliamentary seats due to the nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system. Nevertheless, Starmer has acquired a robust majority, giving him a mandate to push his policy agenda through parliament.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: USD 3.34 trillion (2024)
GDP per capita: USD 48,800 (2024)
HDI: 0.940 (2022)
Official currency: Pound Sterling (GBP)
Demography
Population: 67.9 million (2024)
Religion (2021)
46.2% Christian
37.2% No religion
6.5% Muslim, 1.7% Hindu, 0.9% Sikh
Electoral System
650 seats are elected for the House of Commons for five-year terms.
All seats are elected by a first-past-the-post system in single-seat constituencies.
The elected government is responsible for the legislative department of government. The Cabinet wields executive power at the national level.
The Head of State, the Monarch, approves the establishment of a new government.
Major Political Parties & Candidates
Labour
Won 412 out of 650 seats, up 211 from the 2019 election.
Centre-left party, shifting party identity back towards the centre after the leadership of hard-left leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Led by Sir Keir Starmer since 2020.
Conservative Party
Won 121 seats, losing 250 since their landslide victory in 2019.
Traditionally centre-right party, but party in-fighting has shifted the party further to the right over recent years following Brexit and the economic shocks after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Leader, and former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to step down following defeat.
Liberal Democrats
Won 72 seats, up 64 from the 2019 election.
Centrist party have gained Conservative seats largely due to dissatisfaction with the Conservative party’s governing and feelings of disproval toward Starmer.
Led by Ed Davey since December 2019.
Reform UK
Won 4 seats, up from 1 after Conservative MP Lee Anderson defected in March 2024.
Far-right populist party, formed in 2018 as the Brexit Party and renamed Reform UK in 2021, the vote share of 14% has stunned the political landscape. The dissatisfaction with the Conservatives has benefited Reform UK, who ran a campaign centred on immigration issues and right-wing populism.
Led by Nigel Farage, who was elected MP after eight previous attempts.
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Won 9 seats, down 38 from the 2019 election.
Social democratic party in Scotland, campaigning for Scottish independence. Suffered a devastating defeat, likely due to the turbulence of their leadership in the Scottish Parliament over the last two years.
Led by John Swinney in the Scottish Parliament, and by SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn.
Green Party
Won 4 seats, up three from the 2019 election.
Left-leaning environmentalist party, advocating for proportional representation and progressive policies on civil liberties and animal rights.
Led by co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay.
The landslide victory for Labour suggests that the British electorate has stymied what appears to be a shift to right-leaning political agendas across Europe and the West. However, his commanding majority has been won on the back of a dramatic reduction in vote share for both the Conservative Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP), and a rise in vote share for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. Despite the Conservative Party shifting toward more hard-line right-wing stances on issues such as immigration and policing of protests, their sharp demise following scandals and a failure to drive Britain out of economic woes in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has favoured Reform UK; led by Nigel Farage, Reform UK secured 4 seats with 14% of the vote share. Additionally, those dissatisfied with the options of the dominant competing parties, Labour and Conservative, and reluctance to vote for Reform UK seemingly opted for the Liberal Democrat party, which had its best election year since 1923, winning 72 seats with 12% of the vote share. The success of the Liberal Democrats, and by extension Labour, can also be attributed to the electorate voting tactically against the Conservatives to lower their vote share.
It is clear, therefore, that Labour benefited from the drop in vote share for the Conservative Party, given that in 2017, Labour received 40% of the vote share, which translated into 262 seats and did not result in them taking office. However, the low vote share of 33.7% that Labour received indicates a relatively low approval rating for an incoming Prime Minister. As a result, Starmer has a particularly challenging task: proving to the British public that he can deliver the change he has long called for. Issues such as energy prices are prevalent public concerns, and the pledge for GB Energy, a public-owned clean energy company, is a widely popular solution for reducing some of the growing energy bills. However, a key concern of voters that has plagued Starmer’s campaign is the cost of pledges. For example, while the public agrees that the NHS requires investment, Starmer has repeatedly stated that his Labour government will not be raising taxes, sparking concerns about how such a major investment is to be funded. The concerns likely stem from Starmer’s frequent failure to outline distinct and comprehensive plans for change, instead preferring simply to emphasise that his government will not be as bad as the previous Conservative government. Nevertheless, Starmer has stated that his government should be judged by its actions and not words and, as such, his success in the next General Election is likely to be predicated on his ability to follow through on his manifesto pledges.
Another significant challenge for Starmer will be to contend with the growing influence of the far-right within British politics. With the likes of hardline far-right politicians Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch returning as potential Conservative leadership challengers, Starmer will likely face a Conservative Party leader keen to use the dispatch box at Prime Minister’s Questions to focus on polarising issues. Additionally, the introduction of Nigel Farage and four other Reform UK MPs to Parliament, will provide a parliamentary voice to the voters campaigning for tougher stances on immigration. Starmer will also have to manage a Labour party likely to disagree on issues such as immigration and wider foreign policy. A previous Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute report noted Starmer’s premiership success will equally be determined by his ability to maintain cohesion within the party on contentious issues such as the war in Gaza. Many voters were dissuaded from voting Labour given Starmer’s stance on the war and delay in calling for a ceasefire, of which many left-wing voters and Muslims are staunch advocates for.
Nevertheless, Starmer now has a mandate that allows him to push policies through parliament. The success of his Labour government will be measured by his ability to tackle key issues and debates within the UK: fixing the NHS, stabilising the economy, improving state education, and reducing illegal migration.
Jamie Street/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term
It is likely that Labour, and Starmer, will make tangible changes in order to reassure the wider electorate that his Labour government is pragmatic and capable of delivering. The Labour government has already lifted the ban on onshore wind farms.
Medium-term
The worsening economic situation of the UK is likely to impact how Labour is going to fund its pledges, such as establishing GB Energy and cutting waiting times in the NHS. Starmer has repeatedly reiterated that his Labour government will not be raising taxes on working people and will instead look to close tax loopholes on the wealthy. Similarly, Labour could raise the capital-gains tax to follow through on the pledge of increased public spending. Nevertheless, the ambiguous costings will likely impede the progress of Starmer’s pledges in the medium term.
Long-term
In the long term, Labour is likely to face challenges from the growing influence of the far right in parliament. For example, the far right's anti-immigration stance could pressure Starmer to adopt positions that are not congenial with the traditionally progressive Labour party in the run-up to the next General Election.
