Lily Donahue | 22 July 2024

Summary

• Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt that killed a rally onlooker. 

• Trump can expect a boost in polling in the short run.

• Gun violence will likely continue to plague the United States.

Former President and National Rifle Association-endorsed Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on 13th July in Butler, Pennsylvania; the shooting killed a rally attendee. For a country which averages one mass shooting per day, the incident speaks to an aggravated increase in the country’s political polarisation and an inability to reconcile with its virulent love affair with guns.  

The shooter, twenty-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed at the scene. A motive for why Crooks, who was a registered Republican (though with a one-time USD 15 donation to a liberal donation platform), attempted the assassination has not been made public.  

Questions regarding security at the event have been rife. Crooks, who carried his AR-15 style rifle to the roof of a nearby building, was not stopped, even when an onlooker pointed him out to police. The building was reportedly less than 164 yards from Trump’s platform, a distance from which a competent marksman would likely be able to hit a target of Trump’s size. Butler, a small town in Pennsylvania known for its farm shows, is not a cosmopolitan city; why the handful of nearby rooftops was, therefore, not surveilled for potential attackers is unclear. 

The shooting led to condemnations of political violence and the requisite American thoughts and prayers. President Biden was clear that “we can’t allow this violence to be normalised.” But in the U.S., such violence is frequent. Though not directed at a presidential candidate since 1981 saw an attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan, gun violence is endemic. Declared a health crisis by the U.S. surgeon general, gun death rates in the U.S. are much higher than in most other countries, especially those to which the U.S. would like to consider itself equivalent. (Guns are a uniquely American cultural problem: indeed, Americans own “46% of the world’s civilian-owned firearms.”)

Though there remains no explicit definition for a “mass shooting” - a grievous oversight considering their frequency - those which garner the most public attention are school shootings; the federal government, apparently bowing to this definitional issue, does not track such events. Though gun violence may often appear random, its effects are not. White men or boys are the typical shooter; Black children are the most common victim. Though Black students make up just over 16% of the school population, they “experience school shootings at twice that rate.” 

As with nearly everything else in American politics, the response to gun violence is typically partisan. While most Americans actually favour stricter gun laws, blanket bans remain unpopular: 73% eschew the belief that there “should […]be a law that would ban the possession of handguns, except by the police and other authorized persons” Republicans tend to remain committed to the belief that gun ownership makes one safer; Democrats disagree. While Democrats overwhelmingly view gun violence as a predominant issue, Republicans take an alternative perspective. 

Indeed, Republican lawmakers have responded to such tragedies as the 2022 Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas and the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stonemason Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, by expanding gun ownership laws. A federal judge in Tennessee passed a judgment allowing 18-year-olds to carry permit-less handguns; the settlement went through on the day three children were killed at a Nashville elementary school. Similar-minded politicians have approved bills allowing concealed weapons in most spaces (Florida), ruled unconstitutional potential bans on assault weapons (California), and maintained that owners do not have to register or have licenses for rifles and shotguns (Kentucky).  

While the U.S. Constitution applauds the “right of the people to keep and bear Arms,” one should remember that arms were understood to exist within the context of an 18th-century militia. While most countries would view Saturday’s violence as an opportunity to tighten gun laws (as happened in Australia in 1996 when a mass shooting prompted sweeping gun laws to be enacted less than two weeks later), the debate over gun control is likely to remain and continue to be a main point of contention.

There will be no passing of gun control laws; many will adhere to the belief that guns make people safer. Trump, with his ability to sense a performative moment, was captured lifting a triumphant fist whilst blood streaked his face. For an election which has come to rely heavily on perceptions of vigour, Biden’s shaky debate performance comes into starker relief. As has happened with past assassination attempts, Trump can expect a boost in popularity; whether this will carry through to the election is unclear. Democrats, who pulled a multi-million dollar aid campaign attacking Trump, will need to pivot, as such ads will appear in bad taste; whether they can do so is anyone’s guess. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Already ahead, Trump will receive a small–though likely temporary–sympathy boost in polling. Trump will likely attempt to capitalise on the attempted assassination throughout its campaign to appeal to the voter base. 

  • The United States, which saw no lasting gun control change even after the 2012 Sandy Hook elementary school shooting which saw the murder of six adults and twenty children under seven, will continue to celebrate its firearms.