US-Venezuela Tensions and the Risk of Military Escalation
By Tom Hayward | 8 November 2025
Disclaimer: This intelligence brief was originally published in early October. It has been republished to reflect updates to the document layout only.
Summary
The United States (US) has escalated its anti-narcotics campaign in South America with a major Caribbean naval deployment and lethal strikes against alleged drug traffickers.
The campaign comes amid an intensification of the Trump Administration’s criticism of the government of President Nicolás Maduro and speculation that Washington may be pursuing regime change in Venezuela.
A US military intervention in Venezuela remains a possibility in the medium term. The likelihood of such an intervention will depend heavily on whether any talks between Washington and Caracas can be revived.
Context
Following US President Donald Trump’s return to office in January 2025, the US significantly intensified its anti-drug trafficking efforts in South America. The administration designated eight groups, including Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua (TdA), as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) in February. Designating cartels as terrorist organisations serves as Washington’s legal prerequisite for the use of military force against groups such as TdA. The US asserts that its operations are a lawful exercise of the right of self-defence in the face of harm caused by drugs brought into the country by the cartels it targets. Since then, the US Navy has increased its presence in the Southern Caribbean, with its buildup including a nuclear attack submarine and at least eight warships, including guided missile destroyers and an amphibious assault ship. In September, 10 F-35 fighter jets were also forward deployed to Puerto Rico. Since September, US forces have bombed and destroyed at least four vessels accused of narcotics trafficking from Venezuela. President Trump has also authorised covert CIA operations in Venezuela, as the administration considers military options, including potential strikes.
The White House press secretary said that Maduro is “not a legitimate president,” and described him as a “fugitive head of this cartel,” referring to the Tren de Aragua organisation. Maduro was sworn in for a third term in January 2025 following a disputed election and allegations of voter fraud. In August, President Trump raised the bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to USD 50 million. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has compared the US’s current anti-narcotics campaign to the War on Terror (WoT), stating, “The United States military will treat these organizations like the terrorists they are—they will be hunted, and killed, just like Al Qaeda.” In the 2024 presidential election, opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez purportedly won 70% of the vote and could provide a viable alternative if the US pursued regime change.
Implication and Analysis
The composition of the US naval buildup indicates a significant level of preparedness for military activity far beyond counternarcotics operations. The presence of an amphibious assault squadron carrying 2,200 marines gives Washington the option of launching an amphibious ground attack from the sea. Guided Missile Destroyers would enable the force to strike land targets deep within Venezuelan territory, such as Ground-Based Air Defence (GBAD), which would enable the US to quickly establish air superiority. On 15th October, two US Air Force B-52 bombers were observed flying off the coast of Venezuela. The flight, described by the Pentagon as a ‘bomber attack demonstration’, could be interpreted both as a warning towards Caracas, and as a sign that preparations for military operations against Venezuela are intensifying.
The White House
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
The US will likely continue strikes against maritime vessels in international waters as part of its intensified anti-narcotics campaign.
Venezuelan forces will highly likely remain on high alert, increasing the risk of clashes between US and Venezuelan forces.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
US administration hardliners will likely push for targeted, limited strikes on targets within Venezuelan territory.
Maduro will likely weather the pressure by leveraging US transactional needs, including oil, in ongoing negotiations.
Long-term (>1 year)
The prospect of a large-scale US military intervention in Venezuela remains a realistic possibility, especially if negotiations between the Trump and Maduro administrations break down.
