U.S Internet Censorship: Will We See a National Firewall?
Edward Bousfield, Taylor Denham & Phoebe Farrelly | 31 March 2025
BISI is proud to present this piece in collaboration with CyberWomen Groups CIC. Through this partnership, we have combined our expertise in political risk with their knowledge of cyber security to deliver a fresh perspective on emerging threats.
CyberWomen Groups CIC is a student-led initiative dedicated to diversifying STEM by supporting and connecting university students interested in or studying cybersecurity, regardless of gender identity.
Summary
Since President Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, many major changes have taken place such as funding cuts and restructuring of government services.
The implementation of a national firewall could limit access to information, stifle innovation and undermine individual freedoms domestically. Internationally, it would disrupt global communication, trade, and diplomacy, with ripple effects impacting global tech governance, international relations and the flow of information.
A national firewall in America remains highly unlikely, considering the country’s strong and longstanding commitment to freedom of speech and the widespread impacts it would have.
The United States (U.S.) has long promoted freedom of speech and internet freedom. However, with recent events – notably the pending national ban of Chinese-owned TikTok, U.S. House subpoenas of tech giants in late February 2025, and emphasis from President Trump’s administration on free speech, online censorship is becoming a prominent issue. As concerns grow, increasing regulation of online platforms raises the question of whether the U.S. could take further steps toward controlling digital spaces and implement a national firewall, as seen in China.
Implementing a national firewall would be a departure from historic U.S. funding of the Tor Network. Founded in 2006, the Tor network has long been a means of censorship resistance, routing and encrypting traffic through multiple servers and offering a means to bypass measures such as China’s national firewall. Despite attempts to freeze Open Technology Fund (OTF) funding, and to cut foreign assistance, indications of reduced funding remain minimal from the U.S. Department of State and other agencies. Trump’s second term so far has seen a repeated commitment to free speech rights for U.S. citizens and to end perceived government censorship, commitments which align with continuing Tor funding. Despite concerns over desired levels of government surveillance leading to a curtailment of internet freedoms, there has thus far been a lack of pro-censorship policy. While the U.S. State Department is funding anti-censorship technologies such as Tor, it is highly unlikely that they will implement censorship measures counter-productive to both their party's political goals and the technology’s purpose.
Trump’s second term has signaled significant changes in U.S. culture. A national firewall would be politically divisive, with digital information being increasingly controlled in daily life, authorities could filter or suppress Democrat viewpoints, amplifying state-approved Republican narratives while limiting access to foreign news outlets, as seen in China and Russia. Controlling the flow of information in the U.S. could manipulate electoral outcomes and weaken democratic processes. Moreover, attempts to restrict digital freedom would likely be met with significant resistance - leading to increased political instability within the country. If implemented, a U.S. firewall is likely to be used to block access to Chinese media and information, furthering tensions between the nations, and prompting retaliatory trade actions from China.
Likewise, a national firewall would have significant consequences for the U.S. economy given its reliance on the tech industry, making up nearly 10% of the GDP. Silicon Valley's standing dominance in research and development and digital services depends on unrestricted internet access to enable AI innovations, real-time and cross-border collaboration and knowledge exchange. Restricting internet access will not only weaken the global competitiveness of U.S. tech firms, but also disrupt industries reliant on real-time data exchange, most notably the financial sector and Wall Street. A firewall would almost certainly deter foreign investment, weakening already-waning investor confidence in the future stability and predictability of the U.S. economy; unrest is already being seen in the stock markets. These factors would drive capital and talent elsewhere, further exacerbating the state of the economy.
Implementation could be carried out under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Established by Trump, the DOGE is tasked with improving government network infrastructure. However, implementation of a national firewall beyond government level would likely involve an overextension of the powers granted to the DOGE. Media scrutiny over the power of the DOGE is yet to deter Elon Musk, indicating that a national firewall could be implemented irrespective of concerns. This would likely add to already mounting controversy from both Republicans and Democrats regarding the DOGE, leading to dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and increased political opposition from both allies and opponents.
Ted Eytan/Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0
Forecast
Short-term
It is likely that the Trump Administration will continue government funding of services such as Tor and will continue to support freedom of speech in America.
Long-term
It is highly unlikely that the Trump administration will implement a national firewall, with Trump continuing to voice his support for freedom of speech.
It is likely that the debate over free speech and Internet censorship will continue, with the incoming TikTok ban at the centre of talks.
