Ukrainian Military Tech Timeline and Analysis (2022–2025)
Abigail Darwish | 29 May 2025
Summary
Ukraine has significantly strengthened its military since February 2022 by integrating domestic innovation and advanced technologies, particularly AI and drones.
The rapid growth of its drone industry, in particular, has enabled cost-effective, scalable capabilities that have reshaped the nature of modern warfare.
However, whilst technology has transformed battlefield dynamics, leadership and diplomacy remain central to determining the war’s resolution.
Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War in February 2022, the Ukrainian military has enhanced significantly. Whilst foreign military assistance from international partners has been crucial to sustaining Ukraine’s war effort, the surge in domestic innovation has arguably been equally important. By leveraging its long-standing defence industry and rapidly advancing tech sector, Ukraine has secured strategic advantages, sometimes offsetting Russia’s larger and better-equipped forces through integrating advanced technologies, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), across its air, land, and naval capabilities.
As evidenced in the timeline, at the epicentre of Ukraine’s warfare tech innovation has undoubtedly been that of drones. Amidst war, the country has established a prosperous domestic drone industry, with contributions from over ‘500 manufacturers’ and manufacturing output ‘reaching into the millions.’ The war has also seen once-civilian purpose technology, such as commercial drones, for military usage and has likewise encouraged private companies and civilian engineers to support operational demands.
The changing nature of warfare from conventional to hybrid or fully-automated means has occurred, partly due to the degree of affordability, adaptability and scale of production of technology-enabled tools such as drones. For instance, as of the beginning of 2025, Ukraine is reportedly producing 200,000 First Person View (FPV) drones per month, due to their low manufacturing cost and ability to destroy military equipment valued at millions.
More broadly, this embrace of technology has—and is likely to continue to—shape the military strategies of both allies and adversaries. Ukraine’s battlefield innovations have informed the strategic planning of partners such as Taiwan, which face comparable security challenges. At the same time, even adversarial powers like Russia have observed and adapted certain Ukrainian tactics, according to Yegor Firsov, commander of a strike UAV platoon. That Ukraine’s influence extends across both friendly and hostile actors highlights the far-reaching and ideologically agnostic nature of technological diffusion in modern warfare.
This climate of technological innovation is not only a wartime necessity but also central to Ukraine’s post-war vision. President Zelenskyy stated in 2022, for example, that he aspires for Ukraine to be a “big Israel”, insofar as replicating Israel’s approach to persistent security challenges. Akin to Israel, Ukraine would therefore continue to embed indigenous innovation into the fabric of its national resilience, leveraging wartime experimentation to shape a long-term model of deterrence and defence.
Whilst technological innovation is increasingly central to modern warfare and can provide a significant tactical edge, it does not in itself guarantee a decisive victory. Sophisticated drones, AI-assisted targeting, and real-time battlefield intelligence may shape the dynamics of combat, but they cannot substitute for coherent strategy or effective diplomacy. At this juncture in the war, it is clear that the actions of individual leaders and diplomatic negotiations remain decisive factors in determining not only the conflict’s trajectory but also its eventual resolution. In this respect, the Russia-Ukraine War evidences how technology may influence how wars are fought—but not, on its own, how they end.
Mitch Nielsen/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is highly likely that state and non-state Ukrainian actors will continue to both innovate and test new military technologies as the war continues.
It is unlikely that Ukraine’s technological prowess will have a tangible effect on ongoing negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
There is a realistic possibility that Ukraine will export its military innovations abroad, with growing interest from allies such as Estonia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic, signalling its emergence as a military technology provider in the region. As of October 2024, Ukraine was considering lifting its current ban on such exports.
Long-term (>1 year)
It is likely that, should the war conclude, Ukraine will continue to prioritise technological innovation as a core pillar of its national security strategy, focusing on developing advanced capabilities such as drones, AI systems, and cyber tools to deter future threats.
It is likely that there will also be increased civil-military integration, similar to Israel’s military Research and Design ecosystem. This pertains to the formal collaboration between the military, government, tech startups and academic researchers to rapidly develop and deploy defence technologies.
