Kira Persson | 17 June 2024

Summary

• A historic defence pact between the US and Saudi Arabia “could be weeks away,” according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The pact would include US security guarantees to the kingdom and cooperation on a civilian nuclear programme.

• Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7th October and the subsequent war in Gaza has accelerated negotiations between Washington and Riyadh.

• A broader regional pact, including Saudi-Israeli normalisation, has been advocated by the administration. However, this hinges on a credible path towards Palestinian statehood. 

The US and Saudi Arabia are reportedly in the final stages of negotiating a historic bilateral defence pact. Whilst specifics are still to be decided, the pact would include formal US security guarantees to defend the kingdom and grant it access to advanced US weapons and civilian nuclear assistance. It would fall short of a NATO-style pact. In return, Saudi Arabia would limit its reliance on Chinese arms and restrict Beijing’s investments in the country. 

The defence pact is meant to reshape the Middle East. Supporters argue the deal would enhance regional stability by buttressing the US-led alliance against Iran, curb Chinese influence in the region, and encourage Saudi-Israeli normalisation. Saudi armed forces would benefit from continuous technical advice and support from the US military. The US would enjoy greater access to Saudi territory and airspace. Importantly, there would be increased pressure on Saudi Arabia to distance itself from China, primarily concerning investments and technology and defence cooperation. With Saudi Arabia seeking to build a tech industry to complement that of oil, the US has pushed for the kingdom not to take technology from China. Further, the deal would likely enhance Saudi cooperation on energy policy — a central component given that Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer with much clout in the energy market.

However, the deal is facing multiple obstacles. President Joe Biden is pushing for a trilateral deal, or a “grand bargain”, including Saudi-Israeli normalisation. Without the process, the US Congress seems reluctant to endorse the defence pact between Washington and Riyadh. The normalisation of relations, in turn, is contingent on Israel committing to a Palestinian state — Saudi Arabia has demanded that Israel halts the war in Gaza and agrees on a pathway to independent Palestinian statehood. These are two requirements Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, heading Israel’s far-right government, seems reluctant to fulfil. Likewise, in the aftermath of October 7, a majority of Israelis oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state. 

There is also the role of Saudi Arabia. Its military intervention in Yemen, attempts to increase oil prices, and human rights abuses have caused opposition among the US population and Democrats in Congress. The military intervention in Yemen has proved costly and may prevent the kingdom from fulfilling its defence obligation towards the US. 

Critics have questioned the impact of the deal, arguing that Saudi Arabia already benefits from US arms sales and military and diplomatic assistance. Previous proposals to restrict American arms sales to the kingdom have fallen short of implementation or produced only temporary bans. As for the wider deal, while Saudi-Israeli normalisation appears distant, the two countries have been anti-Iran allies for years and de facto security partners through the US Central Command. Instead, critics argue, the deal would reward Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and his previous human rights violations. Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Forbes that for Saudi Arabia, “the deal that is in question, and which depends on Israeli behaviour, is the complete American underwriting of Saudi Arabia as a nuclear power protected by a U.S. defence agreement on par with NATO”.

The broader deal is certainly more complex than the Abraham Accords negotiated under the Trump administration in 2020, especially as it includes some of the most sensitive issues in the region — that of Palestinian statehood and nuclear proliferation. Nevertheless, Russia or China might take on that role if the US fails to provide security guarantees to Saudi Arabia. For Saudi Arabia and Israel, a strategic partnership should be desirable, given shared concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence. Hence, a trilateral deal would unite two historic foes while bringing Riyadh closer to Washington as China further penetrates the region.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Saudi-Israeli normalisation would showcase Biden’s ability to make US gains in the Middle East. This would likely boost his chances in the November election. However, a broader deal, including Israel, is improbable before then, especially since the recent military offensive in Rafah. Without Saudi-Israeli normalisation, even the bilateral deal is unlikely to be approved in Congress. 

• Medium-term

  • The pact will boost Saudi Arabia’s military defence against its regional rival, Iran, and allow for wider US military presence in the region. However, the pact is also likely to raise Iran’s threat perceptions, especially by providing Saudi Arabia with essential components to develop nuclear weapons. One possibility is that the pact incentivises Iran to formally ally with Russia or speed up nuclear developments.

  • Negotiating a successful path towards Palestinian statehood would likely enhance MBS’s regional legitimacy. A pact with the US may encourage the Crown Prince’s military adventurism and potential attacks on Iranian allies using US weapons.