Alex Blackburn | 14 May 2024

Summary

• Two Ukrainian Security Service colonels were arrested for plotting Zelenskyy's assassination under Russian orders. 

• Russia aims to destabilise Ukraine by infiltrating its security service and targeting top officials. 

• This plot highlights the evolving tactics of hybrid warfare, blurring conventional and covert actions. 

Located in a wooded area just outside the capital, Kyiv, two colonels of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) were confronted and subsequently arrested, charged with plotting the assassination of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy under the instructions of the Russian State. According to the SBU, the Russian State had contacted the two ‘moles’ that infiltrated the Security Service before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and their primary objective, as instructed by Russia, was to identify and contact potential collaborators who could contribute to the deposition of Zelenskyy in time for Vladimir Putin’s fifth inauguration. This is not the first time Zelenskyy has faced such attempts, with the president himself admitting earlier this year that there had been at least ten such plots against his life. Furthermore, the SBU has also implied that the two officials arrested were also targeting General Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, tasked with observing and passing on information about General Budanov’s whereabouts; the colonels’ contributions would then be used to order a targeted drone or rocket strike - decapitating Ukrainian military leadership. Such high-profile plots against Ukrainian leadership have not reached mainstream awareness since the beginning of the war after Russia attempted to seize Kyiv in a lightning offensive - with the aim of capturing Zelenskyy and his administration. 

The attempted assassination of President Zelenskyy and the targeting of other key Ukrainian officials reveal a calculated strategy by Russia to destabilise the country and eliminate key figures who stand in opposition to its objectives. By infiltrating the Ukrainian Security Service and orchestrating attacks on top officials, Russia aims to sow fear and discord within the Ukrainian government, weakening its ability to resist Russian aggression. To this end, the revelation of such a sophisticated plot underscores the evolving nature of hybrid warfare tactics employed by hostile states, blurring the lines between conventional military action and covert operations. Additionally, such tactics utilised by the Russian state could signify of Putin’s desperation for a quick and decisive end to the invasion. It would be an understatement to suggest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not unfolded as planned - after initial predictions gave Ukraine only two weeks to stand against Russia - and despite some recent Russian successes in the East, new weapon shipments from the United States will ensure the stalemate in the Donbas continues.    

Forecast

• Short-term

  • The arrests will likely trigger a thorough investigation into the SBU's ability to safeguard President Zelenskyy, potentially revealing further compromised elements within the institution. 

• Long-term

  • Zelenskyy is expected to restructure the SBU leadership to ensure loyalists hold key positions, similar to his recent military reshuffle, to bolster Ukrainian security in the future.