Tanzania’s Protests: A Renewed Confrontation between African Gen Z and Democratic Backsliding
By Michele Santolini | 19 November 2025
Summary
President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government has cracked down on protesters contesting the legitimacy of her re-election and the ongoing autocratisation process in Tanzania.
The event, rather than an isolated example of local unrest, reflects a spill-over of the continent-wide Gen Z mobilisation against democratic backsliding in local hybrid regimes, as previously seen in Kenya and Madagascar.
The lack of current military defections and international involvement suggests that Hassan’s government is likely to remain in power in the near future, albeit in a context of growing instability and sustained pressure from civil society.
Context
On October 29, 2025, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was overwhelmingly re-elected with 98% of the vote, in a competition marred by systematic irregularities, violence, and widespread voter suppression. Hassan, leading the 50-year-ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, has progressively consolidated her authoritarian grip on power, barring the main opposition party, Chadema, from contesting the elections and ordering the arrest of its secretary, Tundu Lissu, in August.
These results ignited an unforeseen, large-scale wave of uncoordinated protests, mostly led by Gen Z activists rather than traditional opposition figures. Demonstrations rapidly spread from Dar es Salaam and other major cities to rural regions across the country. As the government moved to harshly crack down on the unrest, declaring a nationwide curfew and deploying the Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) on the streets, reports from the opposition and Amnesty International denounced the deaths of 700 civilians.
The international community has so far reacted cautiously, with the African Union assessing a lack of democratic compliance in the elections and expressing concern about the loss of life, yet congratulating the president. The UN secretariat and the EU both called for investigations into the events.
Implications
The rise of bottom-up demonstrations against reemerging authoritarianism, and the mobilisation of youth through social media channels such as TikTok and Instagram, reflects and confirm a growing pattern in the region. As shown by recent cases in neighbouring Mozambique, Madagascar, Morocco, and Cameroon, where authoritarianism has taken hold, the continent is facing a crossroads between contrasting models.
Tanzania fits this trajectory, given its authoritarian past until the beginning of a democratic transition in the early 2000s and the regression of all relevant democratic indicators during Hassan’s first term. Once described as an “island of stability”, Tanzania is very likely to further spiral into this conflict between opposing tendencies, namely the erosion of its already precarious liberal democratic institutions and practices and the emergence of a militant and politicised youth. Unconfirmed videos of alleged army officials inciting revolt circulated on the internet, according to the BBC, suggesting a potential fracture within the regime. However, this evidence is largely insufficient to determine a TPDF defection into the opposition camp, as shown by its role during the repressions.
Further spillovers to neighbouring countries are likely, given that protesters reportedly crossed into Kenyan territory with the help of local citizens to escape clashes with Tanzanian security forces at the border town of Namanga. In response, Tanzanian police allegedly fired tear gas canisters across the border, sparking tensions with Kenya.
As a consequence, Kenyan authorities publicly urged Tanzania to protect its citizens amid post-electoral violence. Since the country was already briefly affected by similar Gen Z-led anti-authoritarian turmoil in June 2025, such militant cross-border activities pose a threat to its stability and demonstrate the existence of opposition transnational links.
At the same time, drawing comparisons from the other cases, such as Madagascar, Hassan’s government remains unlikely to be immediately overthrown without the involvement of the political and military establishment in the confrontation or sufficient international pressure.
Peter Mitchell/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Democratic backsliding is highly likely to accelerate, prompting further institutional weakening of checks and balances and civil freedoms, as indicated by the proliferation of mass arrests, media restrictions, and internet blockages.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
Despite repression, demonstrations are highly likely to persist through 2026 and question the image of the uncontested stability of the regime, leading to further clashes.
A spill-over effect to other countries, such as Kenya, appears likely, due to the existing cross-border linkages between Gen-Z opposition groups.
As suggested by Kenya’s reaction, relations between the two countries are likely to deteriorate, with border management becoming a potential source of friction.
Long-term (>1 year)
There is a realistic possibility of Hassan’s overthrow from power, given the vast scale of the unrest and the example set by other countries.
However, the military’s persistence in its allegiance to the regime, so far largely undisputed, appears likely to hamper the momentum toward a decisive political shift.
