Tanzania at a Crossroads: Rising Authoritarianism Ahead of Elections
Sara Etukudo | 1 November 2024
Summary
Since June 2024, authorities have arrested hundreds of opposition supporters, banned independent media, imposed social media restrictions, and have been linked to the abduction and extrajudicial killing of at least eight government critics.
Tanzania’s political trajectory depends on whether President Samia chooses to pursue her democratic reforms or continue her predecessor’s authoritarian practices
With the 2025 general elections approaching, opposition groups may also gain momentum, further destabilising the government.
After assuming office as the Tanzanian President in March 2021, Samia Suluhu Hassan began reversing her predecessor John Magufuli's authoritarian policies. She restored civil rights by unbanning public rallies, loosening media restrictions, and consulting with opposition parties on reforms. She also proposed an inclusive committee to review the constitution. Additionally, Samia removed Magufuli loyalists from key positions and reinstated figures he had sidelined, such as January Makamba and Nape Nnauye.
However, recent escalations in targeted violence against critics suggest a reversal of her initial promises of greater political freedom. Since June, authorities have arrested hundreds of opposition supporters, banned independent media, imposed social media restrictions, and have been linked to the abduction and extrajudicial killing of at least eight government critics. The most high-profile case was the brutal killing of Ali Mohamed Kibao, a senior member of the main opposition party Chadema, who was kidnapped, beaten and doused with acid.
There are growing concerns that Tanzania may return to the autocratic rule seen under Magufuli’s presidency (2016-2020), which was marked by state repression and orchestrated violence. Samia, who was Magufuli’s deputy, inherited the presidency after his death in March 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both belong to the Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, which has won every election and remained in power since independence from Britain in 1961.
On October 2, 2024, three top Tanzanian newspapers had their online licence suspended for airing an animated clip about rising abductions, a move reminiscent of earlier bans on publications reporting on corruption and human rights abuses. This pattern suggests a troubling shift back toward restrictive media practices seen under Magufuli’s regime.
Human rights groups and critics are increasingly concerned that Samia’s tactics are aimed at intimidating political adversaries ahead of the local elections on 27 November 2024 and the general elections in 2025, raising concerns over the fairness and transparency in the upcoming election.The warning signs are evident, yet Samia has condemned these “brutal acts”, reaffirming that Tanzania is a democracy where “every citizen has a right to live”. She now has an opportunity to fulfil her initial promises of criminal justice and democratic reform, which are crucial for preventing government abuse of power and ensuring a fair election process. However, these reforms may make her unpopular within the ruling party, which has held power since 1961 under the current system.
Despite these risks, implementing such reforms would not only secure Samia’s legacy but also shape the country’s democratic future. Tanzania’s political trajectory depends on whether she chooses to pursue these reforms or continue her predecessor’s authoritarian practices, potentially leading the country down a dangerous path.
GovernmentZA/Flickr
Forecast
Short Term - Very likely / High Impact
Political tensions are highly likely to escalate during the local elections in November 2024, resulting in increased repression, undermined electoral legitimacy, and potential civil unrest. The opposition, human rights groups, and voters will be the most affected.
Medium Term Likely / Medium to High Impact
Without reforms, international pressure will likely increase as human rights violations continue. Economic sectors reliant on foreign aid and international trade will suffer. With the 2025 general elections approaching, opposition groups may also gain momentum, further destabilising the government.
Long-Term - Possible / Very High Impact
Tanzania's democratic future hinges on the government's actions. Failure to implement reforms could result in sustained repression and long-lasting damage to the political structure, civil liberties, and international relations, potentially leading to political instability and economic decline.