Alex Blackburn | 20 June 2024

Summary

• Following the election on 29th May, South Africa's ANC has formed a coalition government with the Democratic Alliance (DA) after losing its majority, marking a historic and previously unimaginable partnership.

• The ANC's electoral decline reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction with high unemployment, poverty, crime, power outages, and corruption, leading to increased support for opposition parties and a pressing need for the ANC to address these issues.

• The new coalition has significant implications for national security and economic stability, with business leaders favouring the DA alliance while concerns remain about the exclusion of radical parties like the EFF and the influential role of Zuma's MK party, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal.

Following the election on 29th May, South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), was forced to form a coalition government for the first time in 30 years after losing its majority. Holding just 159 of the 400 seats, the ANC has negotiated a national unity government, including the white-led Democratic Alliance (DA), marking a historic and previously unimaginable partnership. With 87 seats, the DA emerged from groups opposing white-minority rule but advocates for free-market economics, in contrast to the ANC’s left-wing traditions. The populist uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) led by former President Jacob Zuma with 58 seats, and the hard-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 39 seats, were not included in the coalition, complicating the political landscape.

The ANC's electoral decline indicates widespread voter dissatisfaction with high unemployment, poverty, crime, power outages, and corruption. This discontent has bolstered support for opposition parties and underscores the urgency for the ANC to address these issues to maintain public order and confidence. Corruption has been particularly damaging, eroding trust in government institutions and prompting calls for greater accountability and transparency. The ANC has failed to address immediate security concerns and implement long-term reforms to energy security, further diminishing public faith in its leadership. Ineffective measures against corruption, improvements in public services, and economic policies that tackle unemployment and poverty are central to the ANC's electoral failure.

The newly formed coalition has significant implications for national security and economic stability. Business leaders and financial markets view the alliance with the DA positively, hoping for stability and cooperation. Conversely, the exclusion of the EFF, which advocates radical policies like nationalising banks and land expropriation, alleviates some investor anxiety. Zuma's MK party, particularly strong in KwaZulu-Natal, remains influential, reflecting deep political divisions within the country.

Security remains a pressing concern, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province, where MK's substantial support has led to increased police presence due to fears of unrest reminiscent of the deadly riots following Zuma's jailing in 2021. This coalition could either redirect government policy to improve socio-economic conditions or, under a weak partnership, uphold the status quo and fail to address the country’s critical issues.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • After the political shock of the ANC losing its majority, announcing a coalition with the DA will most likely bring about a sense of political stability within the African state. There may be more immediate policy changes, especially regarding economic policy, focusing on the corruption currently plaguing the state-owned corporations.

• Long-term

  • If there is no overall improvement in the economic situation some South Africans feel, alternatives may be considered. Failures in these policies will be capitalised on by the EFF, who will focus their rhetoric on the white-led DA and could therefore encourage further support for this radical movement.