The Geopolitical Impact of Malaysia’s Renewed MH370 Efforts
Yirong Han | 28 March 2025
AHeneen/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA 3.0
Summary
Malaysia’s recent decision to partner with US-based marine robotics firm, Ocean Infinity, to resume the MH370 search on a “no-find, no-fee” basis underscores its commitment to using advanced technology to resolve this long-standing aviation mystery.
This collaboration has the potential to reshape geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning US interests and China’s influence in the region.
A successful search could enhance international aviation safety protocols and provide closure for the MH370 passengers’ families. However, achieving these goals requires transparent communication among involved nations to navigate international political pressures.
In March 2025, Malaysia announced the authorisation for Ocean Infinity to resume the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370), which vanished on 8 March 2014 with 239 passengers on board. The renewed search will cover a newly identified area of 15,000 square kilometres in the southern Indian Ocean. Under a “no find, no fee” agreement, the company stands to receive a USD 70m (GDP 54m) payment contingent upon the successful locating of wreckage.
This decision highlights Malaysia’s commitment to utilising advanced technology in its search efforts; however, it holds significant implications for international credibility and stakeholder trust. Additionally, if the USD 70m payment does not adequately cover operational costs, it may jeopardise the search’s effectiveness, increasing public scepticism and raising concerns about Malaysia’s capacity to uphold international commitments. This concern is heightened by the fact that previous searches–including a USD 150m (GBP 120m) multinational effort involving Malaysia, China, and Australia–ended in 2017 without any wreckage being located.
These concerns may not only threaten the credibility of Malaysian authorities in the eyes of the public and international community, but they also set a precedent for future search operations, where financial transparency will be crucial to maintaining stakeholder trust. Malaysia’s handling of the search could have lasting repercussions for its reputation and diplomatic relations in the region, particularly given the failures of previous search efforts.
Malaysia's decision to engage a US firm in the renewed search for MH370 introduces significant geopolitical and legal considerations. Indeed, engaging with a US firm aligns Malaysia with Western powers amid growing concerns about China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, the legal implications surrounding the ownership of any wreckage found–specifically, that discoveries in international waters belong to the finder–could complicate the situation, particularly given China’s vested interest due to the number of its nationals on board.
Moreover, this collaboration is crucial as geopolitical dynamics evolve in the region. The involvement of multiple nations, particularly Malaysia, Australia, and China, in previous search efforts suggests that this partnership may possibly lead to scrutiny of China’s past actions and a demand for greater transparency regarding its role in earlier operations. The Malaysian government has expressed their dedication to provide closure for MH370’s families, reflecting the societal impact of this continuing tragedy and the critical need for open communication with stakeholders.
While the search underscores a commitment to advancing technological capabilities in aviation safety, it also carries risks to operational effectiveness. If successful, these renewed efforts could set new benchmarks for international aviation safety protocols, leading to improved tracking systems and more robust crisis management strategies that benefit global air travel. However, failure to locate the wreckage may exacerbate the emotional distress of the families of the passengers and erode the Malaysian government’s credibility. This outcome would raise significant concerns about the government’s capacity to manage future crises and uphold its responsibilities in aviation security.
Anna Zvereva/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA 2.0
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is likely that the search will commence without significant delays, generating positive media attention that enhances Malaysia’s international standing and reaffirms its commitment to resolving the MH370 mystery.
It is likely that concerns regarding the adequacy of the USD 70M payment to cover operational costs will arise. Especially if funding proves insufficient, it may jeopardise the search’s effectiveness and raise public scepticism.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
It is likely that a successful search will lead to advancements in international aviation safety protocols, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region, prompting a reassessment of existing aviation standards and the adoption of enhanced tracking measures.
There is a realistic possibility that international political pressures could hinder these advancements. As such, maintaining transparent communication among all nations involved will be essential for ensuring effective international cooperation in aviation security.
