Quantum Cryptanalysis and its Impact on Global Power Dynamics
Autumn Bamford | 18 March 2025
BISI is proud to present this piece in collaboration with CyberWomen Groups CIC. Through this partnership, we have combined our expertise in political risk with their knowledge of cyber security to deliver a fresh perspective on emerging threats.
CyberWomen Groups CIC is a student-led initiative dedicated to diversifying STEM by supporting and connecting university students interested in or studying cybersecurity, regardless of gender identity.
Summary
Quantum cryptanalysis presents a major global security threat by potentially breaking widely used encryption systems, particularly Rivest–Shamir–Adleman (RSA).
The impact of quantum cryptanalysis could disrupt global economies and shift geopolitical power, highlighting the urgent need for quantum-resistant encryption technologies to secure sensitive data.
Geopolitical concern over quantum cryptanalysis remains minimal as current threats are not seen as severe. However, its anticipated success has driven efforts to develop quantum-safe cryptography to mitigate its impact.
Quantum cryptanalysis is the use of quantum computers to break classical encryption methods, leveraging the processing power of quantum algorithms to solve problems that are otherwise unbreakable. This emerging field presents an unprecedented risk to global security, as quantum computers threaten to crack encryption methods that have protected sensitive data for decades. At the forefront of this vulnerability is the Rivest–Shamir–Adleman (RSA) cryptosystem, one of the most widely used encryption protocols, now vulnerable to a quantum algorithm known as Shor’s Algorithm. Published in 1977, RSA has long been a cornerstone of secure data transmission, yet quantum advancements place it at significant risk. While not the only encryption method under threat, its susceptibility underscores the urgent need for quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions.
RSA has been used by governments globally. Since January 1970, documents have revealed that the United Kingdom’s (UK) Government Communication Headquarters (GCHQ) developed equivalent encryption methods mirroring RSA’s algorithm. In the United States (US), RSA is approved for federal government use by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This NIST framework is used in Switzerland, Japan, and Israel, as well as inspiring other countries.
Given RSA’s international use, the race to perfect quantum cryptanalysis is critical to global powers, as the first to crack RSA would gain a strategic advantage—both in protecting its own data and leveraging access to others’. This is especially concerning since RSA is widely used in online banking and mass document encryption. Solving RSA could potentially cripple a country’s economy by exposing sensitive financial transactions, shaking investor confidence, and destabilising markets. Furthermore, leaked classified documents could reveal intelligence about military strategies or diplomatic negotiations, providing adversaries with an unprecedented strategic advantage. Such a breach could also escalate international tensions, potentially triggering retaliation or diplomatic sanctions. Likewise, the global power balance could shift dramatically, as countries with access to quantum cryptanalysis might wield disproportionate influence, able to undermine the security of their rivals without the need for traditional military force. This vulnerability could lead to a new kind of global arms race, not based on nuclear or conventional weapons, but on the capacity to control information through quantum technology.
For many countries, they are actively taking steps to prepare for the quantum threat to become a reality. In the NIST guidelines, the risk of quantum to the RSA cryptosystem is made clear - making it no surprise that the US is one of the lead players in the field, sitting only behind China and the European Union in terms of public quantum funding in 2022. However, this statistic is not exclusive to quantum cryptography, but all quantum computing. The UK is also considered a top country contributing to quantum, with GBP 1B of public funding invested, and the National Quantum Technologies Programme reaching its 10th anniversary in 2024. However, the clear lead is China, which has already been reported to have cracked 50-bit RSA and is pushing to create its own quantum cryptography algorithms in order to prevent US “backdoors”–underscoring the tangible global concern surrounding quantum cryptography.
This is not to suggest that there is no remedy. In the UK, the National Cyber Security Centre is actively pushing for research into quantum-safe cryptography, an approach shared by the European Parliamentary Research Service, the US, China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. This is due to the recognised fact that the best way to counter the threat of quantum cryptanalysis is with equally powerful quantum encryption, such as Quantum Key Distribution, or classical methods that remain secure against quantum technology, such as hash-based or code-based encryptions.
Tung Lam via Pixabay
Forecast
Short-term
It is unlikely that there will be significant changes in the short-term geopolitical stance on quantum cryptanalysis, despite impressive advancements such as Microsoft’s ‘Majorana 1’ chip.
It is unlikely that a threat posed by a country at this stage would be considered severe enough to warrant significant concern, as demonstrated by China’s success in breaking 50-bit RSA.
Long-term
It is likely that quantum cryptanalysis will become effective from 2030 onwards, with current advancements suggesting this timeline may be accelerating.
It is very likely that mitigation action, such as quantum-safe cryptography, is underway in light of this prediction. This means that whilst the impact of quantum cryptanalysis is seemingly high, there is a clear hope that its impact will be greatly reduced.
