Projected Displacement: Tainted Elections and The Persistence of the Venezuelan Migrant and Refugee Crisis
Mikaela DesLauriers | 9 August 2024
Summary
The Venezuelan migrant and refugee crisis has become the largest in the world, with eight million people displaced due to ongoing political repression, economic collapse, and human rights abuses.
Estimates of one-third (8-10 million) of Venezuela’s remaining population will flee the country if President Maduro remains in power for another term.
While the majority of Venezuelans have settled in neighbouring Latin American and Caribbean countries, these host countries are struggling to cope with the large influx amid their own economic difficulties, leading record numbers to attempt to reach the U.S.-Mexico border.
Venezuela’s ongoing political and economic turmoil, compounded by the July 2024 tainted Presidential election, has escalated the country’s migrant and refugee crisis, the largest in the world today. As of July 2024, over eight million Venezuelans have fled the Latin American petrostate (hosting 18% of the world’s total oil reserves), surpassing the numbers of Syrians, Afghanis, or Ukrainians displaced outside their home countries. While Venezuela is not experiencing an armed conflict, its exodus is explained by its dysfunctional economic and repressive political leadership under President Nicolás Maduro. Despite the scale of emigration, international attention and policy focus have dwindled, treating the crisis as the new normal rather than an urgent and ongoing challenge.
The persistence of Maduro’s regime and the continued breakdown of democracy and basic human rights are driving factors behind past, present, and forecasted emigration. The promise of hope offered by the opposition leadership’s campaign under Edmundo González in the July 2024 Presidential election to reverse economic suffering, restore democracy, and stop the mass exodus was eradicated by Maduro’s interference and the targeting of opposition members. Maduro’s declared re-election victory has been met with widespread claims of fraud from the U.S. and the European Union. While thousands of Venezuelans are taking to the streets to protest, others have declared and decided they will “protest with their feet” and leave the country. The New York Times predicts that one-third of Venezuela’s population of 28 million could flee the country after the January 2025 inauguration.
The outcome of this tainted election has important ramifications for neighbouring and regional countries. Host countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, despite showing commendable solidarity, are struggling with the influx of Venezuelan migrants and refugees. Nations like Colombia, Peru, and Chile which originally welcomed Venezuelans, are now struggling to cope, pushing many to be re-displaced in search of better opportunities. In 2023 alone, approximately 262,633 Venezuelans crossed the U.S.-Mexico border, a sharp increase from previous years.
While the recipient countries have introduced various measures to regularise the status of Venezuelans and provide access to essential services, such as the U.S.’s designation of Venezuelans for Temporary Protected Status, these efforts are hampered by economic setbacks and political interests. The protracted nature of Venezuela’s displacement crisis has left many Venezuelans in precarious conditions, vulnerable to exploitation and xenophobia. Additionally, restrictive policies in some host countries, like increased visa requirements (including the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Panama) and border closures (like Colombia in 2020 and the U.S. in 2024), have made legal migration more difficult, pushing those displaced toward perilous, irregular routes through the Darién Gap (passage costing USD 500-1000 per person).
Venezuela’s migrant and refugee crisis continues to unfold against a backdrop of economic collapse and repression, exacerbated by Maduro’s authoritarian governance. The projected displacement of 9.33 million Venezuelans resulting from Maduro’s tainted election victory will further strain the region’s capacity to respond. The situation in Venezuela is not just a humanitarian crisis but a broader threat to regional stability, with far-reaching implications for the Americas and beyond.
Andres Silva/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term
Venezuelan migration flows will almost certainly increase as political unrest and repression intensify, pushing millions to seek refuge in neighbouring countries and the U.S. Maduro’s election interference makes it unlikely that the U.S.’s 2019 oil sanctions will be lifted (costing Venezuela’s economy USD30 billion in 2019), exacerbating the migrant crisis and the effects of ‘Dutch disease’, where an overreliance on oil exports has crippled Venezuela’s other sectors.
Coinciding with the U.S. 2024 presidential election, the Venezuelan exodus will likely elevate immigration, asylum, and the U.S.’s southern border to the forefront of political agendas.
Medium-term
Highly likely continuation of mass displacement if Maduro declares victory in January 2025 and Brazilian and Colombia-led peace talks fail. This surge is likely to strain border control, public services, and increase anti-immigrant sentiment in destination countries, posing moderate to high risks to regional stability and resource allocation for businesses and organisations.
Long-term
Likely entrenchment of the displacement crisis as Venezuela’s political and economic situation remains unresolved, with Latin American and U.S. immigration policies potentially hardening in response to the protracted exodus. This scenario will sustain emigration flows, pressuring U.S. and regional immigration policies, labour markets, and social cohesion, requiring businesses to invest in resilience strategies, integration support, and adaptation to evolving regulatory environments influenced by fluctuating political stances in the U.S.