Philippines's Defence Pact with Japan
Ranson Lo | 25 July 2024
Summary
The Philippines has signed a security agreement with Japan, allowing both nations to deploy troops in their counterparts.
The agreement came to fruition after months of talks on strengthening economic and security ties between the two countries amid the increasing threat of China in the South China Sea (SCS), which Beijing claimed.
China will likely gradually scale back its increasingly aggressive hybrid warfare campaigns in the SCS as the security deal will incur higher costs (i.e. sanctions or military responses) to Beijing’s actions.
The Filipino Defence Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. and the Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) last week during the 2+2 high-level ministerial meeting in Manila. In addition to the usual security clauses of increasing the transfer of military equipment and joint exercises, the deal allows both countries to deploy troops in their counterparts’ territories, making the Philippines the 4th country after the U.S., the U.K., and Australia to be granted such rights. The agreement follows months of negotiations subsequent to Filipino President Bongbong Marcos (BBM)'s summit with Japan and the U.S. in April 2024, which sought to strengthen economic and security cooperation.
Alongside the RAA, the Philippines’ expansion of the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the U.S. in early 2023 indicates BBM’s increasing pro-Western foreign and security policy. The shift from his predecessor President Duterte’s policy, can be attributed to the the increasing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Taiwan Strait in recent years. Under the new expansion of EDCA, the U.S. has been granted access to five more military bases, which includes the largest army base in Luzon. This is along with the strategically important air base in Palawan which monitors both air and maritime traffic in SCS. The agreement also aimed to improve domestic security in the archipelagos by stabilising and combating terrorism in the southern Philippines in Mindanao.
Despite the proliferation of bilateral military alliances likely feeding the increasing U.S.-China competition over control of the Indo-Pacific region. These agreements will be crucial in maintaining regional stability by increasing the costs of military clashes. This is particularly important for the SCS as any conflicts in the area will be detrimental to the global economy, as illustrated by a previous BISI report, given that over 80% of global trade passes through the region.
Defense Visual Information Distribution Service/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term
Maritime disputes and clashes in SCS between China and the neighbouring claimant nations are expected to continue. However, the recently signed Philippines’ defence pacts with the U.S. and Japan are likely to deter China from engaging in high-level combats.
BBM will likely continue pursuing a pro-Western security and foreign policy, especially given the recent escalations of maritime clashes with China, who have refused to relinquish its claims over most SCS with the NDL.
Long-term
The Philippines' security deal will likely increase cooperation with other U.S. allies, including Australia, South Korea and Taiwan. The agreement will also likely encourage other SCS claimants or the ASEAN nations to explore and strengthen military ties with the U.S.’s allies amid the rising U.S.-China geopolitical and strategic rivalries.
The potential economic deals will create investment and operational opportunities for foreign companies to expand businesses or supply chains into the country, especially as electronic exports take up around half of the Philippines’ exports. This could be an alternative to securing supplies from China amid the escalating U.S.-China trade war.
