Kira Persson | 7 February 2024

Summary

• Pakistan's 2024 elections appear fraught with pitfalls, with the military accused of interfering by shaping an electoral environment favouring former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who recently returned to Pakistan following exile in London.  

• The imprisonment and disqualification of opposition leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan has sparked controversy. His party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is still participating in the elections.  

• The elections are occurring amidst a severe economic and political crisis and a deteriorating security climate. Whatever the electoral outcome, the future government have many challenges to tackle.  

On 8th February, Pakistan is holding elections for its national and provincial assemblies. The country is currently run by caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar, who took over from Shehbaz Sharif (brother of Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister from 2013 to 2017) in August last year. Elections were initially supposed to be held in November but were postponed, allegedly due to electoral boundary delimitation. The delay is believed to give the military more time to manipulate the electoral environment (which is largely in favour of opposition leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan) and promote the return of Nawaz Sharif. Indeed, a fair and peaceful electoral contest will be difficult, as biased judicial and political actors have largely locked the PTI out of conventional political engagement.   

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 340.64 billion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 1,470 (2023)

• HDI: 0.544 (2021)

• Official currency: Pakistani Rupee

Demography

• Population: 243.31 million (2024)

• Ethnic composition (2020)

  • 44.7% Punjabi, 15.4% Pashtun, 14.1% Sindhi

  • 8.4% Saraiki, 7.6% Muhajirs, 3.6% Balochi

• Religion (2020)

  • 96.5% Muslim (85-90% Sunnis, 10-15% Shia)

  • 3.5% Others (including Christian and Hindu)

Major Political Parties

• Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) 

  • Centre-right party, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, platform on liberalising the economy, combating and terrorism. 

  • Founded in 1993.   

  • Came to power for the third time in 2013 with a clear majority.

• Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) 

  • A centre-right populist party founded by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan who embraces Islamic socialism and seeks to minimise foreign aid to Pakistan. Khan is off the ballot (sentenced to 10 years in jail for leaking official secrets and another 14 years for corruption) but remains a popular force, especially among younger voters.  

  • The party is currently led by Gohar Ali Khan. 

  • Many of Khan's followers see him as someone who will lead Pakistan away from corrupt and dynastic politics. 

• Pakistan People's Party (PPP)

  • Founded by former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1967 and later led by two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, PPP is now in the hands of former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and his father, Asif Ali Zardari. 

  • Centre-left party with combating climate change as its present core.   

  • Last in power in 2008.

The military is the dominant powerbroker in Pakistani politics and the most powerful institution overall. Analysts maintain that in 2018, Khan's electoral victory was largely due to military support of the PTI. In this year's elections, however, Khan is disqualified from contesting, and his relationship with the military is one of deep hostility. The military has shifted its support to Nawaz Sharif, whose last three terms were all ended due to confrontations with the military, suggesting that the backing has more to do with the military's dislike for the volatile populism of Khan, than an amiable relationship. 

In 2018, Sharif was sentenced to ten years in prison for corruption but was later granted bail to travel to London, where he spent four years in self-imposed exile. Sharif returned to Pakistan in October, as legal hurdles against him quickly dropped, to unite the opposition against Khan. Conveniently, Pakistan's Supreme Court also overturned lifelong bans preventing those with criminal convictions from running for office.  

The legitimacy of the 2024 elections is lacking. Aside from military interference and abusive employment of the judicial system, Khan's absence on the ballot has spurred widespread unrest. Khan is Pakistan's most popular political figure, with an approval rate of 57%. Many analysts believe PTI would see a clear victory in free and fair elections. However, Khan was imprisoned in January, and a military crackdown on PTI has detained thousands of its members and supporters over the past year. Many PTI members live underground to avoid arrest or have defected to join rival parties. 

Further, the Supreme Court recently dealt a blow to the PTI's campaign efforts, upholding an election commission ruling that denied the party from using its recognisable symbol — a cricket bat. In a country of 243 million, many of whom are illiterate and identify politicians with their party logos, disallowing such symbols makes voting less accessible. Members and supporters of the PTI say this is a deliberate attempt to curb the party's electoral success. A PTI spokesperson expressed frustration over such legal judgements, stating that legitimate means of electoral participation and contestation have been stymied for the party. Nevertheless, the PTI attempts to challenge the two dominant parties in the election. It has adopted unconventional methods to mobilise support from its passionate supporters in the physical absence of Khan — TikTok and AI-generated speeches have allowed Khan to campaign from behind bars.  

The 2024 elections are important for multiple reasons. Pakistan is struggling with a multitude of economic problems (widespread poverty, unemployment, and skyrocketing inflation) and is navigating a tough International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme, a rise in domestic terrorism, and increased tensions along the borders of Iran and Afghanistan. Further, the political environment in Pakistan is highly polarised. Yet, the political campaigns have seen important issues overshadowed by political personalities. To gain credibility with international partners and investors, a new government is required—one which can turn the economy around and curb domestic political violence. The predominant support of Pakistanis seriously affected by the economic crisis is for Khan. Whatever the electoral outcome, the new government will play an important role in improving the health of the country's economy and democratic environment.    

Forecast

• With the military seemingly on its side, the PML enjoys a significant advantage in the upcoming election. Sharif could manage relations with the West (and IMF) better than Khan did during his term. However, given Khan's persisting popularity, PTI might emerge as the winning party despite the odds against them. For voters sitting on the fence, voting for the PTI could be a silent protest against the violent crackdown on Khan's party. 

   

• Most analysts, however, predict that no party will gain a clear majority in parliament— thus, a coalition government will be necessary. This might deter policy-making processes when urgent change is needed, and the IMF bailout programme is running out in March.  

• Post-election uncertainty and destabilisation could exacerbate terrorism and border tensions. It can be questioned whether the electoral outcome will be widely accepted and how the political climate over the past few months has affected people's trust in Pakistan's democratic institutions. However, the military's grip on politics will likely limit major electoral reforms and widespread opposition in the near future.