Alex Blackburn | 6 November 2024

Summary

• North Korea has sent 1,500 troops to Russia, planning a total of 12,000, with officers already supporting missile strikes in Ukraine.

• Russia and North Korea have deepened military ties, with North Korea seeking economic and technological aid in return for military support to Russia.

• Global and regional tensions are rising, though experts question the combat effectiveness of North Korean troops.

North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine has escalated significantly in recent weeks, as revealed by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. North Korea, already providing ammunition to Russia, has now reportedly sent 1,500 special forces to Russia for training, with plans to dispatch a total of 12,000 troops in the coming months. These troops were equipped with Russian military uniforms, weapons and forged IDs to disguise themselves as Russian soldiers. Reports suggest that North Korean officers are already operating in Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, supporting missile strikes against Ukrainian forces.

This growing military cooperation is part of a broader strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang. The two countries signed a defence pact earlier this year, requiring mutual support in the event of an attack against either nation. North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has sought to deepen ties with Russia, aiming to secure economic aid and technical assistance with its struggling satellite programme. In return, Russia is receiving essential military hardware as it faces high casualties and the depletion of its own military resources in the prolonged conflict with Ukraine.

The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia and their potential participation in combat operations in Ukraine marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the war. This is North Korea’s first major involvement in a foreign conflict, raising alarm in South Korea and among international observers. The National Intelligence Service released satellite images showing Russian navy ships transporting North Korean forces and mass gatherings of North Korean soldiers in Russian cities such as Vladivostok, Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk.

Despite having one of the largest standing armies in the world with 1.2 million troops, North Korean forces have limited modern combat experience and rely on outdated equipment. For this reason, analysts believe North Korean troops may be assigned to less critical roles, such as guarding the Russia-Ukraine border, to free up more experienced Russian units for frontline fighting. However, the symbolism of North Korea's involvement is clear: it signals deepening ties between two authoritarian regimes, united by their international isolation and willingness to defy global norms.

The introduction of North Korean troops into the conflict could have far-reaching consequences, both regionally and globally. For Ukraine, the presence of additional foreign troops on the battlefield, even if they lack experience, could complicate its military strategy. While North Korean forces may not have a decisive impact on the battlefield, their participation in the war underscores Russia’s increasing desperation to find new sources of manpower and military aid as its casualties mount.

On a broader scale, North Korea’s involvement raises concerns about the potential for further escalation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that North Korea’s participation could be a step towards a larger, more dangerous conflict, even suggesting that this could lead to a “world war.” Additionally, the alliance between North Korea and Russia could trigger a stronger response from the West, potentially leading to more severe sanctions or increased military support for Ukraine.

Regionally, this development has heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s decision to back Russia militarily while severing ties with South Korea reflects its increasingly aggressive posture. The deepening alliance between North Korea and Russia could embolden Pyongyang in its confrontations with Seoul and Washington, potentially increasing the risk of military conflict in East Asia.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • North Korea is expected to increase its deployment of personnel on Russian territory, fulfilling its agreement to send 12,000 troops. While the exact role of these soldiers remains uncertain, their presence in Russian-occupied areas or direct involvement in Ukraine will likely prompt stronger financial and military aid for Ukraine from South Korea. However, we would likely not see any major developments in the war in Ukraine. The tightly locked stalemate between Russia and Ukraine would require much further intervention than a few thousand North Korean troops or additional Western aid to be broken. 

• Long-term

  • Over time, North Korea’s growing involvement in Ukraine could lead to deeper military cooperation with Russia, further isolating both countries from the international community. A strengthening in relations between the two states has the potential to sour relations between Russia and China, whose influence currently dominates the small pariah state.