Ranson Lo | 12 August 2024

Summary

• Nationwide protests, riots and clashes between far-right and anti-racism groups and police throughout the U.K., particularly in Liverpool and Manchester, following widespread disinformation regarding a mass stabbing that killed three children in Southport on 29th July.

• Despite being triggered by the mass stabbing, the unrest is underlined by anti-immigrant dissents shown by the Reform Party’s strong outcomes in the recent election and the long-term stunted growth in former industrial cities.

• The number of arrests and charges will almost certainly increase due to PM Keir Starmer’s assertive stance on restoring order. At the same time, immigration policy is also likely to be tightened in the long term to quell popular dissent and concern.

Far-right protests, fueled by disinformation, broke out last week in response to the mass stabbing in Southport on 29th July by Axel Radakubana, resulting in the deaths of three children. The protests and violence soon spread to a national level, as clashes between the police, far-right, namely the English Defence League (EDL), and anti-racism groups, were experienced in over 20 places, including the major cities of London, Manchester and Liverpool. Mosques were surrounded by far-right supporters, along with community facilities and shops damaged and looted, including the Spellow Library in Liverpool and Sunderland Police Station set on fire, a Holiday Inn Hotel in Rotherham holding asylum seekers breached, and a Syrian shop in Belfast looted. Numerous private residences were also damaged, with dozens of police and individuals injured from the series of unrest throughout the week.

The widespread unrest and violence were soon denounced across the House of Commons by all major parties of Labour, Conservatives and Labour Democrats. PM Keir Starmer and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper instated emergency measures to expand police stop-and-search powers and implemented emergency security response plans to protect mosques. Around 700 individuals were arrested at the time of reporting, with plans of increasing court operating hours reported to facilitate the processing of the arrestees, which was used during the 2011 riots that saw over 2,000 arrested and sentenced.

Disinformation played a heavy role in the protests, as false materials regarding Radakubana’s identity soon began to spread after his identity was first hidden due to the legislation that provides anonymity for underage individuals in criminal proceedings. Despite being born in Cardiff, online chatter circulated false information describing the suspect as a Muslim asylum seeker who arrived in the U.K. in 2023. Conspiracy theories and suspected political motives building on the disinformation over the suspect’s identity were also endorsed and amplified by politicians such as MP Nigel Farage, the far-right and anti-immigration Reform Party’s leader and other civilian groups such as the EDL.

English Defence League (EDL)

• Far-right group founded in 2009 by Tommy Robinson, a former member of the British National Party, who left in 2013.

• Campaign on the single issue of anti-Islamism, rejecting the notion of integration and assimilation of the Muslim population into British society. The group is known for the use of Islamophobic language despite denying allegations of racism and violence.

• Two members were convicted in 2011 of plotting to bomb a mosque in Stoke-on-Trent.

The unrest, albeit triggered and escalated due to disinformation, highlighted two major underlying societal issues in the U.K.: anti-immigration and disparity of economic development. Campaigning on anti-immigration, Farage’s Reform UK party, despite only taking five seats in the parliament, won 14.3% of the votes in last month’s election. The four million votes indicated that a sizeable proportion of the British population is sympathetic to  Reform’s agenda on regulating and limiting both legal and illegal immigration. Marked by the Brexit referendum, immigration has long been a controversial topic since the 2010s. Much of society believed and continues to claim that the influx of migrants undermines the cultural identity and cohesion in the U.K.; the net number of migrants rose from 249,000 in 2012 to 764,000 in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics. Anti-immigration groups purport that immigrants destabilise domestic stability, suggesting they have increased crime rates, add pressure to the welfare system, and “take jobs away from the locals”.

Apart from the anti-immigration and renewed Islamophobic sentiments, the unrest was concentrated in the Midlands and North of England, which were the historical industrial and mining heartlands. The majority of these cities and towns have experienced stagnated economic growth since the de-industrialisation period in the 1970s and 1980s under the Thatcher government. Median salaries in Yorkshire and the Midlands hovered around GBP 31,000 to 33,500 in 2023, significantly lower than the GBP 44,370 in Greater London. As online chatter and interviews with far-right protesters suggested, regional disparity, long-term perceived negligence and negative economic prospects are also major drivers of the anti-immigrant sentiments, as the group is commonly blamed for national misfortunes, similar to sentiments witnessed in the U.S. and across Europe.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Arrests and sentencing are almost certain to increase as Starmer denounced the protests as “far-right thuggery” and supported strengthening policing and judiciary efforts to crack down on the unrest.

  • Unrest imposes significant operational and security risks for individuals and businesses in the affected areas, especially Middle Eastern shops or restaurants, which have been vandalised and looted by some protesters.

  • Polarisation of public opinion and proliferation of xenophobic sentiments are expected as an aftermath of the protest from the outbreak of violence and clashes between far-right groups and the Muslim population, yet it is unlikely to result in another mass-scale unrest.

• Medium-term

  • The government will likely tighten immigration legislation and restrictions to address the unrest and concerns regarding the issue. 

  • The U.K. government’s response to the unrest and ability to protect Muslim communities is likely to impact the U.K.’s diplomatic relations and ties with Islamic countries, which have been increasingly strained due to the ongoing Israel-Palestinian conflict.

• Long-term

  • The government is highly likely to improve anti-disinformation efforts (i.e. fact-checking, debunking, pre-bunking) by working with the private and civil sectors, as disinformation contributed to the escalation and proliferation of violence.