Sam White | 31 January 2024

Summary

• On 28th January, the military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso & Niger announced their joint withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 

• The events mark a further blow to ECOWAS’s credibility and ability to exercise influence in the region.  

• The trend of the declining influence of Western countries in favour of Russia is likely to continue.  

The announcement, broadcast simultaneously on the national televisions of the three countries, marks the latest nadir in the wider political crisis unfolding in the Sahel. All three nations had previously been suspended by ECOWAS and subject to sanctions by the bloc following military coups in each country. The suspensions, designed to put pressure on the ruling military juntas to transition back to democratic civilian rule, have had little effect and have been met with defiance from the three states. The military juntas signed a joint defence pact in September, forming the “Alliance of Sahel States”. In their withdrawal statements, the military regimes accused ECOWAS of pandering to “foreign powers” (read France & The United States), betraying its founding principles, and crucially, failing to tackle the Jihadi insurgency engulfing the Sahel. 

The withdrawal is set against a worsening security situation in the region as violent attacks perpetrated by Islamist insurgents increase in frequency and intensity. Equally worrying, these attacks are beginning to spill over into other West African states. The danger is that the more divided West African states are, the less capable they are of dealing with the existential threat the insurgents pose. Concurrently, the withdrawal marks a further development in the long-term trend of these states rejecting ECOWAS and its Western allies, notably France and the US, in favour of increasing reliance on Russia and its Wagner Group mercenaries for military support. 

Forecast

• Short-term: A feeble response from ECOWAS is expected with its credibility as a force to be reckoned with damaged. Previous threats of military intervention in Niger made by ECOWAS were unfulfilled. It’s unlikely that the events of the weekend will change this.  

• Long-term: Would-be Coup instigators in other West African states are likely to be emboldened by the move. The predicted feeble response from ECOWAS would confirm that the costs of committing coups are not insurmountable. Moreover, the Alliance of Sahel States now offers a feasible alternative to ECOWAS for would-be putschists. Concurrently, the trend of the West’s declining influence in the region is likely to continue with Russia filling the void.