M23’s Rapid Advance to the Southeast Captures Goma
Hugo Folliss | 30 January 2025
Summary
M23 controls, as of 27 January, large swathes of the city of Goma, North Kivu, DRC, as well as key mining towns, including Lumbishi, Bumbi, and Shanje, and taken control of Masisi, Sake, and Minova.
The capture of the city marks a turning point in the conflict with fears of further escalations between the DRC and Rwanda, and a spiralling of an already severe humanitarian crisis.
In the medium term, calls for peace echo throughout Africa and beyond including a phone call between the Presidents of Rwanda and South Africa, suggesting that a ceasefire is likely.
The March 23 Movement (M23) was established in 2012 after a commitment made in a 2009 peace agreement to integrate members of the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) into the army was not delivered. M23 claimed to be protecting the Tutsis living in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); however, international onlookers accuse them of profiting off the mineral wealth of Petit Nord, the resource-rich northern region of North Kivu province. On 19 November 2012, M23 briefly captured Goma, the largest city in Petit Nord with a population of over a million and a key trading hub, before being expelled by an international force comprising troops from the United Nations Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) and regional partners amidst international pressure on their primary backer, Rwanda. In 2022, M23 reignited the conflict and, since the start of 2025, have advanced rapidly, culminating in the capture of Goma.
The capture of Goma is a significant milestone. As a central trading hub on the DRC-Rwanda border, it offers a route via the National Road 2 (RN2) for minerals trading from Petit Nord. Its capture cements M23’s grip on North Kivu province with no real means for the DRC or its allies to begin a counter-offensive to recapture or resupply the city. The city’s electricity and water supplies have been cut off and all aid routes have been throttled with the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) halting operations in the city. WFP and the International Committee of the Red Cross warehouses have also been looted, exacerbating food shortages. A major prison (Munzenze) break of more than 4,000 prisoners in the city may lead to increased criminality, with looting being reported in Kalindo and the Bireere Market. Hospitals have reported hundreds of people seeking medical treatment with an upsurge of gender-based violence.
M23 hailed the ‘liberation’ of the city on Monday, 27 January morning, calling for calm, halting all activity on Lake Kivu, and announcing the end of a 48-hour period for DRC soldiers to handover their weapons to the MONUSCO peacekeeping force. Fighting has been localised in the eastern parts of the city in Majengo and Bujavu, centring around the airport where South Africa and MONUSCO have their bases. 13 South African National Defence Force (SANDF) peacekeepers have been killed in the fighting, in addition to four peacekeepers from Malawi and Uruguay. Videos have been circulating purporting to show SANDF soldiers surrendering; however, a SANDF spokesperson denied the claims stating that it was part of an arranged truce. Security sources have confirmed that 1,200 Congolese soldiers have surrendered at the airport and are confined to the MONUSCO base.
Regionally, the rapid advances made in North Kivu have significant regional consequences. M23 have been able to capture Masisi, Sake and Goma, covering a distance of 85 km In the span of just three weeks, providing strong leverage for ceasefire negotiations. Rwanda supports the M23 rebel group due to concerns over the presence of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in the DRC. The FDLR is primarily composed of former members of the Interahamwe and the Rwandan Armed Forces who participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide and later fled to eastern DRC. Both the DRC and Rwanda have accepted invitations from William Ruto, Kenya’s President to attend an urgent peace conference. This is a significant turnaround from the previous week when the DRC cut diplomatic ties with Rwanda. Rwanda may also be threatened by the severe criticism it has come under from the UN, US, UK and France this past week during UN security council meetings, with all four calling for Rwanda to withdraw its troops from the DRC. In a phone call between President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Paul Kagame, both leaders called for an urgent ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks.
MONUSCO/Abel Kavanagh via Wikmedia, CC BY 2.0
Forecast
Short-term
It is highly likely that an already severe humanitarian crisis will worsen. The increasing prices of food, the prison break, the cutting off of electricity and water, and the lack of aid coming into the city will have detrimental effects on the civilian population.
The situation is likely to continue to trigger violent anti-Rwanda protests across the DRC. Reports indicate that embassies in Kinshasa, including those of France, Rwanda, Uganda, and Belgium, have been attacked, burned, or looted by protesters. There is a realistic possibility that attacks on diplomatic missions could impact foreign relations and result in the withdrawal of embassy staff.
It is likely that a severe humanitarian crisis will lead to social unrest. A large refugee population lived in camps around the city and with little to no chance of escape other than across the Rwandan border, M23 may struggle to deliver for the needs of an enlarged population. The probability of social unrest increases the longer that aid is stopped from entering the city.
DRC counter-offensives are highly unlikely in the immediate future. MONUSCO and South African bases have been surrounded by M23 and both are calling for a ceasefire. The DRC failed in its defence of North Kivu indicating it is almost certain that the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) do not have the capacity to strike back at M23.
It is likely that a ceasefire will be established. The military position of the DRC and their allies has severely weakened with the capture of Goma. MONUSCO is trapped, and South Africa has already called for ceasefire talks with Rwanda. Pressure from both would leave the DRC little choice but to begin negotiations.
Medium-term
It is likely that a peace deal will be advocated for by Rwanda, which can take advantage of their strong negotiating position.
It is highly likely that in the event of no peace deal being struck, Rwanda will be the target of aid suspensions. As a consequence of the fall of Goma in 2012, European countries cut donor aid whilst the US halted military aid to Rwanda.
It is likely that any peace deal struck between Rwanda and the DRC would require military operations to restart against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), whose membership includes alleged participants in the Rwandan genocide. The DRC were required to attack the FDLR under a previous deal with Rwanda that was stopped by FARDC generals who viewed the FDLR as allies against M23.
It is likely that the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP/ADF) will continue exploiting the security vacuum left by the DRC’s focus on M23. ISCAP is likely to expand further into North and South Kivu, with a realistic possibility of cross-border attacks in the long term.
Long-term
It is highly unlikely that M23 will push beyond the Eastern DRC. The capital of Kinshasa is over 1,500 km away and the expansive Congo rainforest stands in their way. Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, would be the likely next target; however, considering the highly negative fallout towards Rwanda, it is unlikely that they will push further south. Any such movement would likely increase the probability of Burundi being pulled into the conflict as well.
It is likely that M23’s political partners, the Congo River Alliance headed by former electoral commission chief Corneille Nangaa, will increase political pressure on the current DRC government highlighting its inability to protect Goma.
