Sam White | 21 February 2024

Summary

• Rebel group M23 encircles and threatens North Kivu regional capital of Goma.  

• South Africa commits troops as part of the SADC mission to aid DRC government forces. 

• Surging violence is exacerbating the already precarious humanitarian situation with civilian internal displacement reaching record levels.  

• Relations between DRC and Rwanda reach nadir point in cold war between the two states.     

The rebel group M23, with the speculated with the backing of Rwanda, has been resurging in the resource-rich North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since 2021. The regional capital Goma is now under threat as DRC government troops aided by SADC (Southern African Development Community), forces battle with the rebel group for control of the area. M23 has recently attacked Sake, 25 kilometers from Goma, forcing around 135,000 civilians to flee, with many of them seeking refuge in Goma.  

The resurgence in violence has prompted South Africa to commit 2,900 troops along with smaller contingents sent from Tanzania and Malawi as part of a SADC mission to bring stability to the area. This comes in the context of the locally unpopular UN MONUSCO mission gradually withdrawing from the region. There are, however, serious concerns about the effectiveness of these troops in combating M23. Poor training, logistical challenges, and limited technical resources are likely to stifle the ability of the mission to combat M23. Indeed, the failings of the UN MONUSCO and East African Federation missions in the area offer examples of the difficulties faced by peacekeeping missions to the region.  

A point of considerable concern is that the rising violence is contributing to and exacerbating massive levels of civilian internal displacement. The UN is now reporting that as many as 2.5 million people are now internally displaced in the region. With already under-resourced healthcare systems stretched to breaking point and weak local infrastructure that is unable to accommodate the sheer number of displaced civilians, the situation is likely to deteriorate further before improvements are made.  

The escalating violence in the region is a focal point in the diplomatic dispute unfolding between the DRC and the Rwandan governments. The DRC accuses Rwanda of funding and arming M23 (an accusation corroborated by numerous international governments and NGOs). In contrast, Rwanda is accusing the DRC of harbouring “Rwandan genocidal forces” and actively seeking to topple the Kigali government. In an open letter to the UN Security Council, Rwanda argued that support for the DRC and SADC forces risked a “regional conflict”.  

Forecast

• Short term

  • It is highly likely that violence in the areas around Goma will continue to escalate in the coming weeks and months, significantly exacerbating the unfolding humanitarian crisis taking hold in the region.  

  • It is unlikely that the deployment of the SADC forces will alter the conflict dramatically in the short term.  

• Long term

  • There is an unlikely but highly impactful risk that the internal conflict in the DRC will develop into a regional conflict between Rwanda, the DRC and Burundi due to the high international and reputational costs. Nonetheless, the situation warrants close monitoring.