Lebanese Presidential Election
Dominic F | 13 February 2025
Summary
The election spanned over three years, from September 2022 to January 2025.
Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, was elected president.
Aoun assumes the presidency amidst a backdrop of economic crisis and regional conflict within Lebanon.
The presidency had remained vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. Lebanon's deeply divided parliament failed to reach a consensus on a candidate amid intense political polarisation and sectarian disputes. This left Najib Mikati, the incumbent Prime Minister, to lead a caretaker government.
The three-year process to elect the next Lebanese president concluded on 9 January, with Joseph Aoun (Aoun) assuming the role with 99/128 votes (77.34%) during the 13th parliamentary session of the process. A non-partisan figure and the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Aoun will not retain his military role after assuming the presidency. He emerged as a consensus candidate among Lebanon's deeply divided political factions.
Lebanon's government comprises a sectarian power-sharing structure that distributes the presidency to a Maronite Christian, the prime ministership to a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker role to a Shia Muslim. The major parties include Hezbollah, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the Lebanese Forces (LF), and the Future Movement, among others.
The election occurred against the backdrop of Lebanon's worst economic crisis in decades. The country's banking system is in collapse, unemployment is soaring, and public services have become almost non-functional. Regional dynamics also influenced the election. Hezbollah's diminishing influence following its conflict with Israel and the fall of Syria's Assad regime played a significant role in shaping the political landscape. The eventual endorsement of Aoun by Hezbollah and its allies was seen as a pragmatic shift.
The election of President Aoun marks a pivotal moment in Lebanon's history, offering a rare opportunity for unity in a country fractured along sectarian lines. His leadership is expected to solidify the LAF as a unifying institution capable of maintaining internal stability. The LAF's neutrality and professionalism under Aoun's previous command have positioned it as a counterbalance to sectarian militias, and this role will likely expand under his presidency. Additionally, Hezbollah's pragmatic endorsement of Aoun may signal a recalibration of the group's political and military strategy, reflecting a growing willingness to compromise in the face of increasing domestic and international scrutiny.
Geopolitically, Aoun's presidency coincides with Saudi Arabia's renewed engagement in Lebanon, exemplified by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan’s visit on 23 January. This suggests an opportunity for Lebanon to reposition itself as a mediator in regional disputes, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, while leveraging Gulf support to stabilize its economy. However, the withdrawal of high-profile investors like Khalaf Al Habtoor highlights ongoing concerns about instability and governance, underscoring the urgent need for institutional reforms to rebuild investor confidence.
Stabilising Lebanon's internal dynamics under Aoun could also create an environment conducive to regional energy cooperation, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean. Successfully navigating these issues could enhance Lebanon's prospects for exploiting offshore gas reserves, which may be vital for economic recovery. However, progress will depend on Aoun's ability to secure international support, both from governments and multinational corporations, to rekindle exploration, such as his recent conversation with Macron on 17th January regarding TotalEnergies’ resumption of operations in Lebanon's Exclusive Economic Zone.
Arlington National Cemetery
Forecast
Short-term
Lebanon’s internal security will likely strengthen, as a result of LAF operations and increased Western military and political support.
Two-way cooperation with Western and regional intelligence agencies will likely increase.
Medium-term
It is likely that Israeli troops will maintain their occupation of southern Lebanon beyond the agreed ceasefire, due to the Lebanese Army's incomplete deployment and Hezbollah's remaining influence in the region. However, there is a realistic possibility that Hezbollah’s operational/military freedom withers as the LAF gains backing and legitimacy.
There is a realistic possibility that Aoun’s presidency will facilitate cautious dialogue with Israel over maritime gas resources and avoid major confrontations. However, due to internal resistance and Hezbollah's influence, full normalisation of relations is highly unlikely.
Long-term
There is a realistic possibility that the LAF will gradually assume a greater role in Lebanon’s defence, reducing Hezbollah’s military dominance but not eliminating its political power.
It is unlikely that significant economic reform will occur, unless Aoun’s administration can effectively address entrenched corruption and sectarian politics.