Alex Blackburn | 31 July 2024

Summary

• Israel launched airstrikes on Hodeidah after a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, causing casualties and extensive infrastructure damage.

• The Israeli airstrikes represent a shift towards long-range offensive actions in response to Houthi attacks, with potential for further escalation.

• The conflict impacts international stakes in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, worsening Yemen's humanitarian crisis by damaging critical infrastructure.

The recent escalation in violence between Israel and the Houthi-controlled regions in Yemen marks a significant development in Middle Eastern conflicts. The hostilities intensified following a drone attack on Tel Aviv, launched by the Houthi movement, which resulted in the death of a man and injuries to several others. This incident prompted Israel to carry out airstrikes on the port city of Hodeidah, targeting oil storage facilities and a power plant. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant justified the strikes by emphasising the need to send a clear message to the Houthi movement. He highlighted that the Houthis had previously launched over 200 attacks against Israel, making Saturday's airstrikes a direct response to the first instance of an Israeli casualty caused by the Houthis.

The immediate impact of the Israeli airstrikes on Hodeidah has been significant. According to Houthi-linked news outlets, the strikes resulted in three deaths and over 80 injuries. The bombings also caused extensive damage to vital infrastructure, including a refinery and electricity facilities, igniting large fires that were visible across the city. The Houthis have condemned the airstrikes as a "brutal Israeli aggression against Yemen" and have vowed to continue their attacks on Israel in retaliation. On Sunday morning, the Israeli military intercepted a missile fired from Yemen, preventing it from crossing into Israeli airspace, with air sirens activated in Israel's Red Sea port of Eilat due to the potential danger of falling shrapnel.

This conflict has broader implications beyond the immediate casualties and destruction. The Houthis have framed their attacks as a show of support for Palestinians in Gaza, asserting that their actions are in solidarity with those suffering from Israeli military operations. The Israeli government, on the other hand, has stressed its right to defend itself against external threats, demonstrating its capability to strike distant targets, as evidenced by the Hodeidah airstrikes conducted over 1,800km away from Israeli territory.

The escalation of violence between Israel and the Houthis in Yemen has significant ramifications for the broader Middle East. Firstly, the airstrikes signal a potential shift in Israel's military strategy. Previously, Israeli responses to Houthi attacks had been limited to interceptions and defensive measures. The direct offensive action against Hodeidah marks a new phase in Israel's engagement with the Houthis, indicating a willingness to conduct long-range strikes to protect its citizens and interests. This development could lead to further escalations, with the Houthis promising an "effective response" to the airstrikes.

Moreover, the US and UK's past involvement in striking Houthi positions, though not in the latest Israeli operation, indicates the broader international stakes in this conflict. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea are crucial maritime routes, and disruptions caused by Houthi attacks on shipping have prompted international military responses. Continued instability in Yemen could further threaten these vital shipping lanes, affecting global trade. Lastly, this conflict exacerbates the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The country's infrastructure, already devastated by years of civil war, faces further destruction from these new rounds of airstrikes. Civilian casualties and damage to essential services like electricity and fuel supplies deepen the suffering of the Yemeni population, complicating efforts for peace and reconstruction.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • There will likely be retaliatory efforts by the Houthi rebels in response to Israel’s targeted strikes. However, they are unlikely to be effective against Israel’s sophisticated air defence systems.  

• Long-term

  • Any prolonged action against Israel, or if the Houthi rebels begin to target international shipping and/or undersea cables in the Red Sea, there is a strong possibility of further multinational cooperation to undermine the Houthi’s ability to coordinate such attacks - possibly the resuming of targeted strikes by the United States and United Kingdom.