Elif Bas | 4 November 2024

Summary

• Iraq is facing increasing extreme weather conditions, increasing social tensions and posing major risks for conflict due to competition for resources, particularly water. 

• Armed groups have exploited the climate-related challenges for recruitment and maintenance of power due to weak governance from the central government.

• It is expected that the climate will continue to exacerbate the divisions and compromise political and social stability.

Iraq is among the five countries projected to be hit the hardest by climate change, exposing the country to extreme weather events like droughts, floods, heatwaves, and dust storms. As infrastructure damaged from 20 years of conflict, Baghdad has limited ability to cope with climate impacts. Development donors expect Baghdad's oil revenue to solve its issues and humanitarian aid and international attention have swayed, particularly with the current regional conflict. 

Communities recovering from conflict and displacement are now at risk of secondary displacement due to climate impacts. Conflicts over water are particularly severe, especially in southern Iraq, where disputes over surface and groundwater are common. Escalations resulted in violent clashes and fatalities in March 2024, leading to the deployment of Iraqi Security Forces in Dhi Qar. Droughts and water scarcity have severely impacted agricultural productivity and food security, with existing gender disparities causing a disproportionate burden on the female population. Further, internal displacement creates additional strain on host communities' resources. 

Social tension continues to rise through direct competition for resources like water and land. Water access poses a major risk and cause of conflict, most acutely in southern Iraq, where farmers frequently clash over the use of both surface water and aquifers. These disputes have spread to other southern regions and the Kirkuk governorate, reflecting the agricultural sector's heavy reliance on crop farming rather than other forms of food production.

Armed groups across Iraq have capitalised on the population’s environmental and economic vulnerabilities, particularly evident in Sinjar, which was plagued by preceding insurgency fighting and a displaced population. In areas such as Diyala, armed groups manage farming operations, causing economic distress by directly controlling agricultural resources. Oftentimes groups also exploit the limited economic opportunities of the population for recruitment. 

Their influence extends to water resource management, property development in urban areas, and control over specific agricultural sectors, as seen in Muthanna's date production and Missan's aquaculture industry. This has led to significant market distortions, with products like amber rice commanding premium prices whilst legitimate farmers struggle to maintain their operations. The groups' profit-driven approach has undermined sustainable resource management and contributed to Iraq's increasing reliance on food imports.

While Iraq's current administration has pledged to address climate-related challenges with support from international organisations and the United Nations, systemic issues persist. Baghdad is confronted with a combination of economic instability, widespread poverty, high unemployment, and deteriorating public services. Corruption and political rivalry continue to hamper effective governance, impeding both climate adaptation initiatives and efforts to build societal resilience. Institutional weaknesses have perpetuated social marginalisation and deepened grievances among vulnerable populations, highlighting the need for comprehensive reform in climate adaptation, development, and reconstruction programmes.

In an attempt to address water insecurity, Iraq has signed a 10-year "strategic water agreement" with Türkiye, as both the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, the roots of the Fertile Crescent and crucial supply to Iraq, originate in Türkiye. Although the neighbours have strained relations due to a range of disputes, recent regional uncertainty and the need for alternative trade routes pushed the two closer together. As Baghdad contends that Turkish dams are depleting its water levels, Ankara vowed to provide adequate water levels and help with the development of modern irrigation systems, in exchange for granting Türkiye expanded military access to northern Iraq's regions where the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) operates, which Ankara classifies as a terrorist organisation.

Forecast

• Short-term:

  • Water-related conflicts may temporarily decrease during winter months, however armed groups will maintain control over agricultural resources, sustaining underlying tensions and economic exploitation.

•  Medium-term:

  • Summer 2025 will likely trigger increased water demands, testing the new Türkiye-Iraq water agreement's effectiveness. With regional conflicts diverting international attention and aid, Iraq will struggle to secure sufficient funding for infrastructure improvements, potentially leading to renewed water conflicts.

• Long-term:

  • Iraq's vulnerability to extreme weather events will intensify, increasing food import dependency, causing an increase in prices and possibly contributing to social tensions. Armed groups will likely expand their control over scarce resources, exploiting both economic and environmental vulnerabilities of local populations.