Oscar Raimes | 15 February 2024

Summary

• Prabowo Subianto set to be elected as Indonesia’s next President. He has, in part secured victory by winning the implicit backing of the incumbent by picking his eldest son (Gibran Rakabuming Raka) as his running mate. 

• Many domestic and international observers fear that his election represents a serious danger to Indonesia’s fragile democracy. Subianto has a long history of alleged human rights abuses, dating back to his time as a senior office in Indonesia’s military. 

• Subianto has pledged to continue the current administration’s growth focused policies, and is likely to continue close economic ties with China.  

Early results indicate that voters in the world's third largest democracy have elected Prabowo Subianto, a former military officer and right-wing populist and nationalist, to succeed Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi), Indonesia’s term limited incumbent. In a three way race the current Defence minister and former son-in-law of Suharto (the country’s military dictator from 1968 – 21 May 1998) looks set to comfortably outperform his two main rivals, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. Although Widodo beat Subianto in the two most recent presidential elections, he has since emerged as an important ally of the sitting president.  

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 1.417 trillion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 5,109 (2023)

• HDI: 0.705 (2021)

• Official currency: Indonesia Rupiah

Demography

• Population: 279.1 million (2023)

• Ethnic composition (2022)

  • Over 1,300 recognised ethnic groups

  • 40.06% Javanese & 15.51% Sudanese

• Religion (2022)

  • 87% Islam, 10.5% Christian

  • 1.7% Hinduism, 0.7% Buddhism

Major Political Parties

• Prabowo Subianto

  • Defence Minister since 2019

  • Former military officer who ran and lost in 2014 and 2019

  • Leader of Gerindra, a nationalist, right-wing populist political party

  • He is projected to win in the first round of voting. His likely victory is due, in part, to securing the implicit endorsement of the incumbent President Joko Widodo by making the latter’s son his running mate

• Anies Baswedan

  • Former Governor of Jakarta (2017-22)

  • Running as an Independent candidate

  • Has links to Muslim political parties

• Ganjar Pranowo

  • Former Governor of Central Java (2013-23)

  • Belongs to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), a populist and secular nationalist party 

  • Pledged to raise public sector salaries 

Prabowo Subianto has served as Defence minister since 2019 and has secured outgoing President Widodo’s implicit backing by picking the incumbent’s eldest son (Gibran Rakabuming Raka) as his running mate. This is likely to have played an important role in his victory as his predecessor will leave office as a wildly popular figure, with approval ratings regularly exceeding 70%. In large part that is due to his ability to resonate with ordinary people; the former governor of Jakarta rode a wave of enthusiasm to emerge as Indonesia’s first president not to originate from the country’s traditional political elite. However, the move to cement his son’s status as his political heir has been highly controversial. Many (including some who have previously served in Widodo’s government) say it represents a worrying turn towards a dynastic style of politics. Indeed, Raka is only eligible to stand for the vice presidency because of a widely criticised Supreme Court ruling exempting him from the minimum age requirements for the vice presidency, a decision that Widodo’s brother-in-law oversaw.  

Concerns are not just limited to his running mate: Subianto himself is a polarising figure. Although he has made a conscious effort to shift away from his old persona as a fiery nationalist and has utilised AI-generated cartoons to portray himself as a more benign figure, he has a worrying history of alleged human rights abuses. Most notably, he was dishonourably discharged from the military for his role in the kidnappings of pro-democracy activists in the late 1990s, though he has benefited from the fact that many of the young voters he is popular with are too young to remember the brutal repression of the nation’s dictatorship. In the past, he has also attracted controversy due to his public praise for Islamist groups.  

One area of the new administration’s policies that international observers will be particularly interested in is his stance on China. Widodo’s government has focused on strengthening ties with his country’s most powerful neighbour and has used these to help modernise Indonesia’s energy industry. Despite his bellicose public persona, Prubianto looks set to continue his pragmatic approach to territorial disputes with China. Indeed, maintaining a productive relationship will be crucial in delivering his promise to create 19 million new jobs over the next five years, part of his wider commitment to continue Widodo’s focus on growth (which in the past has been centred around investment in infrastructure projects). This is significant given that Indonesia is not just a major regional economic power (it is set to be the world’s sixth-largest economy by 2027), but also a major producer of strategically important resources such as nickel, cobalt, copper, and gold.  

Forecast

• Short-term

  • In line with current projections, Prabowo Subianto will win the Presidential election on the first ballot. 

• Medium-term

  • Indonesia will continue to see democratic backsliding. Gibran Rakabuming Raka will assume the role of heir to his father’s political project and his ability to emulate his father’s popularity will determine the possibility of a successful dynasty. 

  • Prubianto will pursue a pro-growth agenda similar to that of his predecessor. 

• Long-term

  • Indonesia will carry on building closer economic ties with China, although tensions are likely to arise in the longer term as the former establishes itself as a regional heavyweight.