Kira Persson | 15 July 2024

Summary

• In the 2024 general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, lost support in key areas traditionally favouring the party, including  Uttar Pradesh.

• While emerging as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha, the BJP stopped far short of the supermajority it had expected.

• The results indicate that Modi’s core issues—such as economic development and making India a Hindu-first nation—fail to resonate with the broader Indian public as it suffers from pressing local issues and polarising politics.

On June 4, the results of the Indian election were finalised. The outcome was a surprise to many. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a third consecutive term (Modi is the only Prime Minister to do so since Jawaharlal Nehru) but fell far short of an expected parliamentary supermajority. The BJP had a target of securing 370 (400 with its coalition partners) of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of India’s Parliament). Instead, the party won 240 seats. 

One reason for this blowback is BJP’s lack of engagement with local issues. The BJP election campaign was centred on Modi’s Hindutva ideology and his ability to revitalise India as a Hindu nation. A focal point was Ayodhya — the holy city in India’s north, where earlier this year a Hindu temple was consecrated in the place of a 16th-century mosque. The project was thought to guarantee Modi’s landslide electoral victory. Instead, he lost the constituency in Ayodhya. In previous years, Modi’s election campaigns have similarly been fuelled by big national issues, such as anti-corruption and anti-Pakistan jingoism, to secure his popularity. Now, two of Modi’s core missions — economic modernisation and religious revivalism, fail to resonate with large parts of India. 

Importantly, the BJP saw a significant drop in its vote share in pivotal areas, including Uttar Pradesh (UP). UP is India’s largest state and a key determinant of who will rule nationally. Located in the north, UP is part of the Hindu heartland where Modi’s Hindu nationalism has historically been successful. In this election, there was a strong undercurrent against the party. In Varanasi, Modi’s development projects have been said to rob the city of its identity. The loss of the constituency in Ayodhya is a significant setback for Modi.

Over the past decade, Modi has indeed boosted India’s economy and the country’s international status. India is now the world’s fastest-growing economy. Nevertheless, levels of domestic inequality are substantial. Economic plans and developments in tech and infrastructure have predominantly benefited India’s urban areas. The large rural populations still lack adequate water connections and other necessities. Everyday Indians face unemployment—especially the youth—and inflation. Further, lower caste voters have worried that an outright majority of the BJP-led alliance could lead to amendments in the constitution, stripping Dalits of access to affirmative action policies. The opposition alliance repeatedly highlighted this point in their campaigns, and the Congress party (INC) promised it would instead lift the cap on such policies if coming to power. 

In this sense, the 2024 election was not necessarily a Hindu-Muslim election. Contrary to what is often depicted in Western  media, the Indian political system appears to be moving away from religion. Voting patterns are increasingly determined by individual needs. There is palpable dissatisfaction, if not anxiety, among Dalits, Muslims, and traditional BJP voters alike. This was showcased in Ayodhya, where access to better healthcare, education, and infrastructure were more salient issues than the building of a Hindu temple. While this does not suggest that people have discarded their Hindu identity or Modi’s Hindutva ideology, it indicates the weight of regional identities, local issues, and reluctance to divisive politics.

What do the election results mean for Modi? Over the past decade, the BJP has enjoyed a parliamentary supermajority, allowing Modi to implement adventurous policies swiftly, and at times, without much consultation. Examples of this are the 2016 demonetisation policy, which had a devastating impact on many Indians, and Modi’s crackdown on India’s civil society. Now, he will have to adapt his way of ruling. Many of BJP’s coalition parties are regional parties with different, and at times diverging, ideologies. Some are secular and enjoy support from Muslim voters. Hence, some of the policies the BJP has pushed forward will be difficult to implement. These include a ‘uniform civil code’, which minorities fear would curtail their rights to freedom of religion and culture, and the controversial citizenship law removing barriers for non-Muslim religious minorities from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan to acquire Indian citizenship. 

Modi has cultivated an image of himself as a decisive, strong leader, but his failure to accommodate rural populations and his authoritarian tendencies are catching up with him. India’s current political climate is not unlike the one observed in the 1970s and 80s, where decades of majoritarian rule by the INC were succeeded by a “coalition era”. The Government became relatively unstable until the BJP dominated the political scene. Are Indian politics once again entering an era of coalition? Indeed, efficient legislation and policymaking will be challenged, especially when it comes to sensitive policies on economic reform and identity politics. Similarly, Modi’s assertive foreign policy is likely to be toned down, both in terms of rhetoric and practice. Overall, the election results demonstrate the resilience of Indian democratic institutions and the evolving views on the relationship between religion and state in India. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • The election results are likely to damage Modi’s brand, and indicate a dramatic shift in India’s political landscape as even traditional Modi voters want politics to benefit the everyday Indian. There is an apparent concern for individual-level issues such as healthcare, education, and jobs, that supersede that of religion.

• Medium-term

  • It is very likely that, seeing this term as one where he leaves his legacy, Modi will push hard for great power initiatives (such as a permanent UN Security Council seat) and implement more Hindu-centric policies. This could further polarise Indian society.

• The turn to coalition politics is alien to Modi. It will lead to more diverse representation in parliament and likely moderate the implementation of adventurous and oppressive policies. However, the BJP is still the strongest party in the Lok Sabha and in the past Modi has proved highly capable of reinventing himself — he will likely do so this time again.