Abigail Darwish | 5 August 2024

Summary

• Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, has been assassinated in the context of the ongoing Israel-Gaza War.

• A new leader of the Islamist group is anticipated in the coming weeks. 

• The assassination risks an escalation in the wider region, with the prospect of direct conflict between Iran and Israel.

On 31 July 2024 Hamas’ top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran. Widely considered Hamas’ primary leader since 2017, Haniyeh’s ties to Hamas date back to the militant group’s founding in 1988. The strike happened at Haniyeh’s residence in Tehran soon after the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility, since October 7 it has pledged to target all of Hamas’ leaders, prompting many in the international community, including Hamas and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, to assume Israel’s culpability. 

Haniyeh’s assassination can best be understood in the context of the ongoing Israel-Gaza War, and more generally the proxy war between Israel and Iran. Since the beginning of the war in October, Israel has been engaged in military confrontations with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which are funded and trained by Iran. Considering that in the last week Israel has undertaken a successful assassination plot against Hezbollah’s top commander, Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and is likely responsible for the death of Hamas’ political leader, Iran’s direct stake in the conflict has undoubtedly magnified. Notwithstanding the fact that only two months ago, in an unprecedented response, Iran sent 300 missiles and drones to Israel, there is a possibility that the conflict will escalate into direct confrontation again. Indeed, the wider region will inevitably feel reverberations from the assassination, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asserting it is their “duty to take revenge” against the “criminal and terrorist Zionist regime”, which has “prepared the ground” for “harsh punishment.” The assassination has also seen international condemnation from regional actors such as Turkey and Qatar. At the same time, Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has since vowed that Israel does not want war, but is “preparing for all possibilities.”

With Hamas’ top political leader assassinated, the prospect of a ceasefire to the Israel-Gaza War has also been eclipsed. Hamas will now seek a new leader who is unlikely to be as “moderate” as Haniyeh, in relation to his counterparts, which will likely undermine any long-term peace agreement being reached. Similarly, Israeli hostages still captive in Gaza may be subjected to abuse, which could be again publicised as retribution for the assassination. The risk of escalation of war has already prompted further pushes for a ceasefire deal, notably by US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.  

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Haniyeh’s death does not mean the end of Hamas, however it is most likely that amongst Hamas’ top figures, one will assume leadership in the coming weeks.

  • It is very likely that calls for a ceasefire will continue, if not intensify. There is also a possibility that non-Western state-actors, namely China, will continue its efforts to broker a peace deal between Israel and Gaza as it attempts to extend its influence in the Middle East region.

  • Israeli security at the Olympics has been tightened and will most likely continue to be on high-alert until the end of the Games.

• Medium-term

  • It is very likely that Haniyeh’s assassination will lead to an escalation in tensions, and potentially military confrontation again between Israel and Iran, destabilising the long-term prospect for a ceasefire deal between Israel and Gaza. 

  • Ongoing confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likewise very likely to escalate.