Mikaela DesLauriers | 1 August 2024

Summary

• Insurgencies and ethnic conflict have been ongoing in Myanmar since 1948, when the country, then known as Burma, gained independence from the United Kingdom. The last four years have seen an escalation in the conflict in response to the 2021 coup d’état. 

• Since the February 2021 military coup, thousands of students have joined Myanmar’s ethnic rebel forces either on the frontlines of the revolutionary war against the military, or become underground drone engineers, medics and strike organisers. 

• In addition to this unlikely alliance, “new abilities packed into consumer technology” are also changing how conflicts are fought, and tactical asymmetries between state militaries and rebel forces.

Myanmar's civil war, one of the world's deadliest and most prolonged conflicts, is witnessing a remarkable transformation. A new wave of young urbanites, including students, poets, and baristas, has joined forces with veteran rebel fighters in the jungles of Myanmar to challenge the repressive military dictatorship (junta). Since the end of October 2023, this unexpected coalition has made significant territorial gains, shifting the dynamics of the country’s war in a region with little journalistic access. 

The roots of Myanmar's conflict trace back to nearly six decades of junta military dictatorship, punctuated by a brief period of democratic governance led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi (Suu Kyi). The decades-long limited transfer of power from the junta to the elected leadership, ended abruptly on 1 February 2021 with a military coup and the arrest of Suu Kyi. The military's enduring 2017 ethnic cleansing campaign against the Rohingya Muslim population and the subsequent arrest of the civilian leadership in February 2021 reignited mass protests and a powerful resistance movement. Young people from diverse universities and professions have fled the cities to join ethnic militias, forming a united front in the jungle against the junta.

These coalition armies, composed of individuals with no prior combat experience, have achieved unprecedented success, capturing over half of Myanmar's previously military-controlled territory. While the alliance has yet to take back a major city, deep trust is being established between the former city kids and ethnic militia as they fight alongside one another. The resistance has established functional governments and refugee camps in resistance-held ‘Free Burma’ areas, despite ongoing warfare and lack of basic infrastructure. Another critical factor in the rebels' success has been the innovative use of drones. These homemade aerial devices, initially adapted for photographic or agricultural purposes, have been transformed into potent bombing tools. Knowledge has been gained from online YouTube tutorials. This is alongside exchanges with Ukrainian rebel forces, which have enabled the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force and other resistance groups to develop a modern fleet capable of challenging the junta's air superiority. Drones have not only equalised the battlefield in Myanmar but also provided the psychological edge needed to drive the military from key positions.

However, the unity of the resistance is fragile. The coalition includes groups with divergent goals—some seeking independence, others aiming to control the illicit “opiate economy” (estimated value between USD1-2.4 billion), and many aspiring for democracy – a word that does not even exist in the Burmese language. This ideological diversity raises concerns about the sustainability of their alliance and the future of Myanmar should they achieve military victory.

The ongoing conflict highlights a critical uncertainty: whether the coalition can maintain its cohesion and effectively govern a post-junta Myanmar. The temptation of power and differing visions for the country's future pose significant challenges to establishing a unified democracy. Despite these obstacles, the rebels' commitment to the ideal of a better future for their country continues to drive their efforts in the jungle. The protracted conflict in Myanmar is reshaping due to the integration of young urban students and ethnic militias, aided significantly by innovative drone technology. While their recent successes offer hope, the long-term stability and unity of the resistance remain uncertain, posing critical questions about the rebels’ ability to hold reclaimed territory and the future governance of Myanmar.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • The innovative use of drones, costing between USD 500 and USD 27,500 with military modifications, will likely give the rebels a significant tactical advantage, enabling further territorial gains against the junta. Despite the alliance's recent successes, the unpredictable path to victory for either warring party may also lead to an escalation in conflict as the junta adapts its counter-military strategies, potentially resulting in increased civilian casualties and displacement. The determination of the rebels, driven by the vision for a better future for Myanmar, will sustain some militia efforts in the jungle. Still, the fragile coalition may struggle to maintain unity and coordination.

• Medium to long-term 

  • While the future of Myanmar’s protracted civil war remains unpredictable, the divergent goals within the rebel coalition are likely to threaten sustained unity. Even with continued military successes, the slim chance of establishing a united democracy suggests the country could face prolonged instability and fragmented governance, hindering efforts to build a cohesive state. The high costs of adapting drone technology and potential supply chain issues may also strain the resistance’s resources, impacting their long-term capabilities and complicating their efforts to maintain control over newly liberated territories.