29 January 2024

Summary

• The UK has developed its first laser weapon system (Dragonfire) to shoot down aerial targets. 

• Lasers have far lower ammunition costs than traditional weapons like missiles. 

• Widespread laser adoption could spark arms races as countries rush to field-directed energy weapons. 

The UK is now officially the first country to create the first defensive laser powered military weapon ‘Dragonfire’ that can take out aerial targets with great accuracy. This is a revolutionary step in military technologies as it can heavily reduce military costs. For example, according to the UK government, the ‘Dragonfire’ is ‘typically less than £10 per shot,’. This prompts an investigation into whether future military technologies are aimed to be cheaper rather than ambitious. More importantly, as this opens new deals for the UK, it is important to identify whether these advanced military capabilities have the capability to initiate an arms race between different countries.  

Dragonfire represents a revolutionary advancement in military technology and could change the economics of military operations. Lasers have negligible ammunition costs compared to traditional weapons like missiles. This could enable militaries to intercept more threats at lower cost. However, the long-term implications depend on how broadly laser weapons are adopted. Widespread proliferation could undermine existing military balances of power and even fuel arms races as countries rush to field their own directed energy weapons. Not to mention that cheap weapons can come at a higher cost of errors. 

Forecast

• Short-term: The UK will continue developing Dragonfire and could deploy more laser systems to defend bases and navy ships. Adoption will be gradual though, limited by power supply and cooling tech. 

• Medium-term: If Dragonfire proves effective, the US and other allies will likely adopt similar laser weapons, while Russia and China push their own laser programs. This could spark an escalating laser arms race. 

• Long-term: Lasers may complement existing weapons systems rather than replace them. But if costs fall, they could proliferate rapidly and undermine traditional military advantages, raising risks of conflict. Treaties may be needed to prevent uncontrolled laser arms races.