From Youth-Led Protests Lead to Military Junta in Madagascar
By Sarah Ambrose | 31 October 2025
Summary
Following weeks of Gen Z protests, the Army Corps of Personnel and Technical and Administrative Services (CAPSAT) unit joined the uprising and drove out the Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina on 13 October 2025.
CAPSAT commander Michael Randrianirina claimed control of the country, with the international community largely condemning the military takeover.
It is highly unlikely that the new military government will be able to address the economic issues that triggered the initial protest movement in the short term.
Context
Malagasy President Andry Rajoelina was deposed following a month-long protest and fled the country on 13 October, 2025. In September 2025, Gen Z youth in Madagascar took to the streets in the capital of Antananarivo, calling for the resignation of Rajoelina and his government due to energy and water shortages, extreme poverty, and accusations of government corruption. 75% of the population lives below the poverty line and only ⅓ of the population has access to electricity. The protests escalated on 11 October, when the CAPSAT army unit joined the youth movement. On 13 October, Rajoelina was impeached by the National Assembly, with the military subsequently seizing power. The constitutional courts declared CAPSAT commander Colonel Michael Randrianirina to be the country’s new leader on 15 October, according to a military statement. Randrianirina dissolved all political institutions except for the National Assembly, including the courts that allegedly put him into power, and committed to ruling a transitional government for up to 2 years before holding democratic elections. In immediate response to the takeover, the African Union (AU) suspended Madagascar and called for elections and the restoration of a civilian-led government.
President Rajoelina first came to power as the transitional leader of Madagascar following the 2009 military coup. Rajoelina’s original rise to power was assisted by CAPSAT, the same military group that turned on him and prompted his exodus. His successor, Randrianirina, was an outspoken critic of Rajoelina’s administration and was imprisoned without trial in 2023 on charges of plotting a coup and inciting mutiny. Following weeks of protests, demonstrators welcomed the new leadership. However, members of the international community, such as United Nations (UN) Secretary General António Guterres, condemned the takeover, calling the change of power “unconstitutional”.
Implications
The Malagasy economy is largely dependent on agriculture, with exports of vanilla, cloves, and rice. The current economic hardship stemming from declining agricultural output is partially beyond political control, as the 2025 agricultural season was marked by insufficient rainfall and a below-average harvest. Approximately 25% of the population, primarily those involved in agriculture, reside in areas designated as high-risk for natural disasters, such as droughts or cyclones. Exclusion from the AU will exacerbate existing trade barriers such as tariffs, harming the already impacted agricultural trade systems. The establishment of a military government also risks sanctions, which could further damage its trade and economic status. The AU’s framework for responding to coups in member states includes sanctions, observed in recent years in states including Mali, Sudan, and Burkina Faso. Additionally, the instability could threaten crucial trade relations with China, the United States, and Russia over natural resources such as graphite.
The military takeover has significant domestic implications, plunging Madagascar into a period of political uncertainty. Randrianirina’s suspension of domestic political institutions and refusal to hold immediate elections threaten the country's democratic foundations. Without constitutional courts, there are few checks and balances to ensure that Randrianirina’s government complies with the law. This puts Madagascar at risk of increased corruption, repression, and autocratic rule. The AU’s suspension of Madagascar will politically isolate the new regime, making its operational effectiveness more challenging. The Gen Z protestors calling for Rajoelina’s ousting have expectations for corruption reforms and an improved economy, which the military government will have to deliver to maintain popular support from citizens. Madagascar is now at risk of a “coup trap” if the military is unable to stabilise the country following its successful seizure of power. While most protestors supported the military’s takeover, many are cautious and expect a swift transfer of power back to a civilian government. If that is not established, there is a possibility of another uprising against the new government.
Brent Ninaber/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is highly unlikely that the Gen Z protestors’ complaints will be addressed, as regime change and the creation of new government institutions will divert attention from issues such as energy shortages and economic struggles.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
There is a realistic possibility that Randrianirina and the military government will call for elections within the next year, as the current exclusion from the AU will be detrimental to the government’s attempts at regional cooperation.
Long-term (>1 year)
There is a realistic possibility that, prior to calling for democratic elections, Randrianirina is removed from power in another coup or revolutionary movement. Madagascar risks falling into a coup trap if initial issues are not addressed.
There is also a realistic possibility that Randrianirina will attempt to maintain power beyond 2 years, rather than holding elections and returning control to a civilian government. Historically speaking, coups are less likely to lead to democracy with new leaders consolidating power and adopting authoritarian practices.
