From Accord to Discord: Mali-Algeria Diplomatic Row Escalates Following Drone Downing
Aryana Ris-Luamháin | 29 April 2025
Summary
Tensions between Algeria and Mali have escalated following the downing of a Malian military drone, signalling a breakdown in bilateral security cooperation.
The rift may undermine counterterrorism and anti-separatist efforts across the Sahel.
Diplomatic tensions are likely to persist in the short term, with deepening AES-Russia ties and possible strategic pivoting by Algeria toward Western partners. In the long term, this could entrench rival blocs in the Sahel.
Tensions between Algeria and Mali escalated following the downing of a Malian military drone, marking the latest development of a worsening diplomatic relationship between the 2 countries. The Algerian army shot down a surveillance drone operated by the Malian military on 1 April , claiming that it entered Algerian airspace by over 2km, near Tin Zaouatine. Mali has denied that the drone crossed the border, arguing that the drone was found 10km into Malian territory. Algeria has refuted any wrongdoing, and in a statement has claimed that “The junta of putschists ruling in Mali is vainly attempting to make our country a scapegoat for the setbacks and woes of which the Malian people are paying the heaviest price”.
A week after the incident, Algeria suspended all flights to and from Mali, claiming that the incident was the third airspace violation in recent months. Mali’s transport and infrastructure ministry retaliated and announced the closure of its airspace to all Algerian aircraft, citing “Algeria’s persistence in sponsoring international terrorism”. This mutual closure of airspaces not only increases the risk of accidental or intentional cross-border incidents which could escalate the rift further, but it also hampers humanitarian aid delivery, disrupts vital trade corridors and impedes cross-border security cooperation.
These developments came shortly after Mali’s military junta coordinated with allies in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to recall their ambassadors from Algeria, all of whom condemned the incident as an "aggression against the entire confederation". In response, Algeria pulled their ambassadors from the AES. The AES, established in 2024, is a confederation comprising Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso - all of which are governed by military juntas. It was formed following a series of coups and the trio's withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The move is widely interpreted as an effort by the nations to legitimise their military-led governments and assert greater regional autonomy.
These developments take place against a backdrop of broader geopolitical realignment. Algeria has historically acted as a mediator between Mali and the separatists, notably brokering the 2015 Algiers Peace Accord. However, relations began to sour after the Malian 2020 coup ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. Mali’s junta government led by Colonel Assimi Goïta has subsequently distanced itself from its traditional regional allies, as indicated by its withdrawal from ECOWAS. More recently, the AES has deepened the estrangement further by aligning more closely with Russia, specifically through Wagner Group, a development Algerian officials denounced. The fallout is not a mere diplomatic rift, but is potentially a sign of a deeper realignment in the Sahel, with military governments forging new alliances and old mediation frameworks falling apart. With Russian influence expanding through military assistance and security contracts, the Sahel risks becoming a zone of proxy competition. This realignment threatens to polarise the region, with military governments forging new ideological and security alliances outside African oversight.
The rift undermines efforts to combat terrorism across the Sahel. The breakdown in cross-border communications has created a vacuum in intelligence, sharing, surveillance efforts and coordinated military options, granting groups significantly more latitude to move freely across the Algeria-Mali border. The tri-border region encompassing Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, known as Liptako-Gourma, serves as an illustration of how fragmented state responses and porous borders have allowed groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) to entrench themselves. There exists a risk that these dynamics will be replicated along the shared border, especially given a number of Jihadist factions have already gained significant traction in recent weeks.
The collapse in cooperation also undermines efforts to suppress separatist groups in northern Mali. Mali’s armed forces are currently engaged in conflict with Tuareg separatists in the north who currently hold a stronghold in Tinzaoutin, which lies along the Mali-Algeria border. In the absence of coordinated surveillance and joint security mechanisms with Algeria, these groups are better positioned to exploit the border as both a sanctuary and a supply route.
Kassim Traoré / VOA
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Normalisation of diplomatic ties between Algeria and the AES bloc is unlikely in the immediate term, especially with ambassadorial withdrawals and reciprocal airspace closures still in effect.
The risk of further provocations such as drone incursions, hostile rhetoric or military posturing is likely to remain high, particularly around border zones.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The AES bloc will likely intensify its strategic tilt toward Russia, expanding military cooperation, training and procurement.
The AES may seek to expand or formalise cooperation with other authoritarian-leaning governments, turning the bloc into a regional pole of anti-democratic legitimacy - further eroding the influence of ECOWAS .
The breakdown of cooperation is likely to result in the intensification of terrorism and separatist activity, posing a significant risk to both Malian and Algerian national security.
