Electoral Violence in Mexico
Rodrigo Franco | 18 June 2024
Summary
Amid increasing violence, Mexico has elected Claudia Sheinbaum, from the incumbent Morena party, as their first-ever female president.
Since last June, at least 37 candidates seeking office have been killed, making this Mexico’s largest and bloodiest election ever.
Positioned as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s loyal successor, it is unlikely that there will be significant policy changes. Nevertheless, it is expected that she might have a more interventionist approach to security than her predecessor.
On 6th June 2024 Mexico celebrated its largest election in the country’s history. This year’s electoral cycle has been characteristic as not only voters appointed over 20,000 local positions and more than 600 at the federal level but also their first-ever female president. It has also been Mexico’s bloodiest and most violent election ever, with at least 37 candidates seeking office being killed since last June, surpassing the 32 in the last election cycle in 2021.
The increase in violence comes amid the fracturing of Mexico’s largest criminal organisations, which has given rise to turf wars between rival gangs and cartels trying to gain greater territorial control. They seek to exert control over communities and authorities through coercion and intimidation. On top of the killings, kidnaps and targeting of candidates’ family members have also been used to demonstrate their capabilities over the authorities. In this regard, local candidates have been targeted the most, as this level of government is the most vulnerable and has the least institutional strength. Thus, the one where cartels and gangs can penetrate the most easily to exert their de facto power.
The increasing violence and insecurity did not influence the election despite being one of the main concerns for Mexicans, as Claudia Sheinbaum, from the incumbent Morena party, was elected as Mexico’s first-ever female president. It is uncertain what her policies on the matter may be, but throughout the campaign she has worked to position herself as the candidate of continuity, capitalising on the incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s high approval ratings of close to 60%.
This will make it hard for her to distance herself significantly from her predecessor’s “hugs not bullets” policy without being too critical, despite it failing to protect Mexicans from organised crime. However, Sheinbaum’s time as head of government for Mexico City might suggest a slightly more interventionist approach on the matter, as greater investments into police training and investigations led to security improvements across the capital.
Jesús Villaseca Pérez/Latitudes Press
Forecast
Short-term
It is highly unlikely that violence and insecurity will decrease in the upcoming months. Additionally, further politically motivated attacks are likely to occur in the transitional period in the states of Chiapas, Guerrero, and Guanajuato, where the greatest number of incidents have been recorded.
Medium-term
Major changes in policy are unlikely considering how AMLO has positioned her as his loyal successor in Mexico’s Fourth Transformation, his high approval ratings and the upcoming US election in November. These will all influence Sheinbaum’s first months in office. However, with strong majorities in both houses, major reforms of the constitution are possible.
