Crowded Waters: the Return of Somali Pirates
Jeanne-Mây Desurmont | 11 April 2024
Summary
Since Houthis’ strikes in the Red Sea, Somali pirates have resumed their activities in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, and they are hijacking commercial ships for profit.
While resources are concentrated in the Red Sea, shipping companies are employing private military companies (PMCs) to protect their boats, increasing the number of armed non-state actors in maritime space.
With a successful counter-piracy operation, India is becoming the primary security provider in the area, sending signals to both the U.S. and China.
Amid Houthi attacks on foreign-owned ships crossing the Red Sea and retaliatory U.S. and U.K. airstrikes, Somali pirates have resurfaced in the Gulf of Aden. Navigating on rapid and light skiffs, armed groups would fire and hijack commercial ships to demand ransom. Before going dormant for a few years, Somali pirates had been active since 2005, which culminated in 217 attacks between 2009 and 2010 and 867 crew members were taken hostage. Ransom money amounted on average to USD 5.4 million in 2010, and piracy cost around USD 6.9 billion to global trade in 2011. Eventually, in 2013, piracy decreased, after three dozen navies began patrolling and protecting commercial boats in the area. This included the EU NAVFOR Operation Atalanta and the NATO, Ocean Shield, joined by ships from China, Japan, South Korea, and India.
Since January 2024, Somali pirates have intensified their activities with more attacks in three months than in the entire year of 2023, according to the International Maritime Bureau. While they are not considered the main threat to global shipping, they are disrupting freedom of navigation, safe passage and the security of seafarers. Moreover, Western navies are focused on the Red Sea, leaving rerouting ships vulnerable to pirate attacks. In response to the threat of piracy, shipping companies are employing private military companies to protect their cargo. While maritime PMCs are a short-term but effective solution to avoid pirates, they are raising concerns about the lawful use of force at sea and accountability.
The maritime space is becoming increasingly militarised between pirates, private militaries and navies. Given the synergies between sea security and land stability, pirates are contributing to existing uncertainty and instability in Somalia. The ransom money is fueling crimes in Somali ports and is sustaining various armed groups. In 2013, humanitarian and development aid missions were designed to tackle the roots of piracy, but ultimately, international organisations must continue their efforts despite the unpredictable terrain.
Additionally, the pirates’ return has also given India the opportunity to step up as the primary security provider in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden. For a hundred days, the naval Operation Sankalp patrolled the area, resulting in the mitigation of several ship hijackings and the arrest of 35 pirates. This Indian success at sea also signals to its allies and adversaries its maritime capabilities. In the context of a disputed Indo-Pacific, the Sino-Indian rivalry, and the QUAD, maritime warfare is at the forefront of every strategy. By effectively mitigating the threat of piracy, India has reaffirmed its authority in maritime space and its regional sphere of influence.
Forecast
Short-term: There is a reasonable risk that pirates will continue to operate in the Gulf of Aden while the Houthis are disrupting the Red Sea. Yet, there is also a high likelihood that shipping companies will increase the security measures on their ships and that military operations such as Operation Sankalp will be deployed.
Medium/Long-term: Ultimately, the highest risk associated with the return of piracy is the increased and intensified militarisation of the maritime space by non-state actors. Armed actors build onto the hostile environment especially when the high seas are contested.
