Alex Blackburn | 01 July 2024

Summary

• Attacks during the Orthodox Pentecost festival in Derbent and Makhachkala killed 20 people and injured 46. Five attackers were killed, and city exits were closed to prevent escapes.

• Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim republic with a history of Islamist insurgencies, faces ongoing security issues. The recent attacks heightened interfaith tensions, targeting Orthodox Christian sites.

• The Russian government blames foreign orchestration for the attacks. President Putin offered condolences, and officials focused on dismantling terror networks amidst a complex geopolitical situation.

A series of coordinated attacks in Dagestan, a republic in Russia's North Caucasus, have left 20 people dead, most of whom were police officers, and 46 injured. The attacks targeted police posts, churches, and a synagogue in the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala on the Orthodox festival of Pentecost. Notably, Father Nikolai Kotelnikov, an Orthodox priest who had served in Derbent for over four decades, was among the deceased. The attackers, who are claimed to be part of an “Internationally-backed Terrorist Organisation” by the government-funded TASS news agency, inflicted significant damage utilising automatic weapons, including setting the Kele-Numaz synagogue on fire. Five of the gunmen were killed, and authorities closed all exits from the city to prevent accomplices from escaping. The head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, announced that the counter-terrorism operation had concluded, but the hunt for sleeper cells involved in the planning continues.

Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim republic in southern Russia, neighbours Chechnya and, like its autonomous republic neighbour, has a history of Islamist insurgency. Between 2007 and 2017, groups like the Caucasus Emirate and the Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus - who have affiliations with the Islamic State group - carried out numerous attacks in Dagestan and adjacent republics; specifically focusing on civilian targets. Despite these challenges, Dagestan is known for its ethnic and religious diversity, housing ancient Jewish, Christian, and Muslim communities. The recent violence highlights ongoing security issues in the region, which has been a focal point for jihadist activity. Tensions have risen between the Muslim and Orthodox communities within the Dagestan Republic, exacerbated by the attacks as they were during a significant Orthodox Christian festival; underscoring the vulnerability and interfaith tensions in the area.

The Russian government, in particular the Russian Security Council, perceives the attacks as part of a broader strategy to destabilise the country, with officials like Sergei Melikov and Leonid Slutsky suggesting foreign orchestration, particularly from Ukraine. This narrative aligns with previous incidents, such as the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, which Russian authorities also attributed to external forces despite claims of responsibility from the Islamic State. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov conveyed President Vladimir Putin's condolences to the victims, reiterating the official stance of external involvement. However, nationalist voices like Dmitry Rogozin warn against over-attribution to Ukraine and NATO, suggesting that such assumptions could lead to significant misjudgments. The Russian response includes a continued focus on dismantling terror networks and maintaining national security amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • As Russian accusations lay at the feet of Ukraine, there will likely be further retaliatory strikes against the Ukrainian nation as the war progresses. Russia will also increase domestic security in the Dagestan region in its efforts to root out the ‘sleeper cells’ which it claims are still at large within the area.    

• Long-term

  • Russia could use the attacks as an excuse to increase further conscription efforts within the Dagestan region, particularly targeting ethnic minorities within the region who oppose the Russian Federation’s domination over their land. This was the case for Chechnya after the 2nd Chechen War, with now a significant portion of the Russian military forces in occupied Ukraine being comprised of Chechens.