Competing AI Strategies in the US-China Military Race
Abigail Darwish | 15 November 2024
Summary
Artificial Intelligence is increasingly integrated into military capabilities, intensifying an AI arms race between nations like the US and China amidst rising tensions and export controls.
Diverging AI strategies heighten the risk of conflict, particularly in flashpoints like Taiwan, as China's rapid deployment of AI challenges the US' ethics-driven restraint.
China is likely to expand AI capabilities with backing from non-Western allies, while the US escalates countermeasures, potentially deepening the global AI arms race.
In recent years, strategic competition between the United States (US) and China has increasingly centred on advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, AI’s integration into military applications has the potential to transform cybersecurity, warfare tactics, and national defence. Countries such as Israel have been successful in leveraging AI for military endeavours, a tactic similarly employed in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. However, the AI-driven arms race will inevitably have more far-reaching effects concerning military dynamics and geopolitical stability between the two world powers.
Currently, US-China relations are influenced by primary and secondary issues. Tensions over Taiwan and increased Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas, meanwhile, ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine War have situated the US and China in opposing camps. These developments make both countries’ military-focused AI capabilities critical, rather than superficial advancements which could have tangible implications given the political climate.
Recent developments
Over the past two years, the US has sustained its efforts to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors and other crucial AI inputs. Most notably the Biden administration has imposed export controls on advanced computing chips and chip-making equipment, which are both “critical for [Chinese] military advantage.” Complementing this policy has been the recent finalisation of restrictions on American investments in Chinese chips in late October. Significantly, concurrent with the latter development, on 24 October, President Biden signed a National Security Memorandum on Artificial Intelligence, instructing American military and intelligence agencies on the risks and responsible uses of AI, with the objective of “enhanc[ing] American advantages.”
In the last week, top Chinese military researchers are reported to have used the American firm Meta’s AI to develop its own defence bot, ChatBIT. An early version of Llama, one of Meta’s open-source language models available online, has been ‘fine-tuned’ and ‘optimised’ for gathering and processing intelligence and recommendations for decision-making. Remarkably this military-oriented AI tool bypasses a direct breach of the American company’s terms which prohibit the use of the model for ‘military’ or ‘warfare’ uses, further signalling the first time China has leveraged the power of open-source AI models for military ends.
Whilst this only represents a glimpse into recent developments, it underscores America and China’s diverging attitudes on the appropriate and regulated use of AI for military purposes, and, more broadly, the unwavering pace at which both nations are pursuing such technology.
US’ Military AI Strategy
The US’ approach to military capabilities can be characterised as calculated and ethics-centred, emphasising responsible and controlled applications of AI. The Department of Defence (DOD) has structured its AI initiatives around maintaining “decision superiority,” which leverages AI to provide commanders with data-driven insights in real-time combat situations. Similarly, its 2022 initiative, the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) system, seeks to improve battlefield awareness by using AI to consolidate data across land, sea, air, space, and cyber domains, alongside partners. This approach aims to deliver an information advantage at the speed of relevance, allowing the U.S. military to outpace adversaries in decision-making, thereby maintaining a decisive edge in decision-making during conflict.
Additionally, agencies such as The Department of Defense’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office have been established to ‘accelerate’ the DOD’s adoption of AI in the battlefield and that these innovations align with the broader defence strategy and ethics policies of the Department. For instance, the DOD’s development of autonomous systems such as drones and uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) complements the objective of advancing reconnaissance and logistics whilst reducing the risks to soldiers in combat. Internationally the US has likewise pursued efforts to establish norms, or a ‘blueprint for action’, concerning the ethical use of AI in the military. In September, 60 countries endorsed this initiative, whilst China opted out.
China’s Military AI Strategy
China’s approach to military AI is centred on modernising, or ‘intelligentization’, of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) through integrating technology into combat, command, and multi-domain operations. In contrast to America, the Chinese government has merged both civilian and military AI development under a ‘Military-Civil Fusion Development’ doctrine. This strategic alignment means that the government can mandate that science and technology innovations be simultaneously applied to the military sector. This institutional short-turn in turn expedites the rate at which China can and is integrating AI into its military, prompting Western concerns that this paves the way for forming the ‘most technologically advanced military in the world’, according to the US State Department.
China has also placed greater emphasis on developing unmanned, autonomous systems. Since 2019 it has developed a series of uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs), a type of underwater drone capable of conducting its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. UUVs also have the potential to carry out anti-submarine warfare which could be employed in strategic regions such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. China has also been successful in developing swarm technology, notably swarming drones. This is where a primary can split into multiple smaller units that can operate in concert, communicate with one another, and perform specific tasks during missions such as command, reconnaissance, as well as tracking and launching attacks. These innovations are indicative of China’s broader military objectives, namely the ‘intelligentization’ of its military, retaining a competitive edge in contested regions such as Taiwan, and bolstering its defence and offence capabilities.
Strategic Implications
The diverging AI strategies between the US and China foster potential flashpoints in international security. The US’ adherence to transparency and ethics-based integration of AI differs significantly from China’s rapid and unrestrained approach. Already the US is undertaking efforts to curb the rate at which China is modernising its military capabilities. Seemingly incompatible AI policies, coupled with existing tensions could foster, if not accelerate, an ongoing AI-driven arms race.
Also, by implication, China’s development and deployment of UUVs increases the prospect of conflict with the US, as seen earlier this year in Taiwan. Comparatively, the US’ restraint in leveraging AI risks creating the perception of vulnerability, potentially encouraging China to exploit this imbalance. This trajectory illustrates the urgency with which collaborative efforts are needed to curb an escalation in AI. However, the current geopolitical climate evidently makes such cooperation difficult.
AI generated/ Microsoft Designer
Forecast
Short-term
It is certain China will continue to develop its AI-infused military capabilities, irrespective of American countermeasures. Warming relations between China and countries hostile to the West, such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea, also open the possibility of cooperation in bolstering their military resources. Especially with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine War, and strained US-China relations over Taiwan, the emerging camps of Western-allied and non-Western countries will most likely exacerbate the AI-military arms race.
It is very likely that America, under a Harris or Trump administration, will continue to limit Chinese military capabilities where possible. However, the latter is expected to adopt a harsher response to an emboldened China.
Long-Term
It is quite likely that, in line with China’s exporting of its high-tech arms exports to countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, China might also expand its exportation to countries of BRICS+, as tensions between the West and China worsen.
