China’s CNNC Chosen for Kazakhstan’s First Nuclear Power Plant Project
Marina Gruzer | 10 June 2025
Summary
Kazakhstan’s selection of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) over Russia’s Rosatom for its first nuclear power plant reflects a strategic pivot toward reducing coal dependency, diversifying international partnerships, and decreasing reliance on Russian technology.
CNNC’s proposal stood out for its cost efficiency (USD 5.6b) and a relatively faster construction timeline (6 years), supporting Kazakhstan’s goal to stabilise electricity prices and meet growing energy demand.
This decision is likely to accelerate Kazakhstan’s transition to low-carbon energy, strengthen its nuclear industry, and influence neighbouring countries like Uzbekistan to favour Chinese partners for similar projects.
Following Kazakhstan’s nationwide referendum in October 2024, which authorised the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant, it chose the foreign technology supplier in May 2025. In line with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader ambition to establish a cluster of nuclear power plants, this project could be crucial in overcoming energy shortage challenges, reducing import dependence and stabilising growing energy prices. This reflects Kazakhstan’s wider aim to move away from coal dependency, which accounts for 65% of the country’s electricity production, with many coal plants operating ‘beyond their intended 40-year life span’. Astana’s decision to turn to the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) over Russia’s Rosatom could influence the direction and development of Kazakhstan’s growing nuclear energy industry.
With a capacity of 2.4 gigawatts, this first nuclear power plant is planned to be constructed in the Almaty region and will be financed largely via loans from international financial organisations and not direct government investment. CNNC’s bid at USD 5.6b is over half of the projected cost between USD 10-15b. Additionally, China has been leading with an average nuclear power plant construction duration of 6 years in comparison to South Korean, Russian and French contenders, who complete construction in an average of 8, 9 and 17 years respectively. With power plant construction costs accounting for a significant portion of the final price of electricity and Kazakhstan seeking sustainable energy pricing amid growing demand, CNNC has emerged as a stronger contender for the project. Furthermore, cooperation with CNNC offers greater opportunities to reduce technological and economic reliance on Russia amid continued pressure from the war in Ukraine.
However, Tokayev has stated that the nuclear plant project will be delivered by a ‘consortium of leading global companies’, suggesting that CNNC may not be the only finalised technology supplier. In terms of fuel cycle technology, all current major contenders, except South Korea, can provide Kazakhstan’s project with a full nuclear fuel cycle and processing capabilities. While Kazakhstan accounts for 43% of the global uranium supply and shares historical ties with Russia's uranium supply chains, Russia's Rosatom has begun selling its stakes in Kazakh uranium to Chinese-owned companies following increasing sanction pressure. Considering Russia’s declining role in Kazakhstan’s uranium industry, following Astana’s increased efforts to diversify international partners following the start of the war in Ukraine, China and France could emerge as more reliable long-term technology suppliers. Crucially, Kazakhstan is also increasingly in favour of the CNNC’s support as the country aims to use China’s expertise in nuclear and water-environmental safety as well as benefit from China’s successful experience with exporting Gen-IV reactors to Pakistan and Argentina. Therefore, while multiple suppliers could emerge as the technological providers, China’s CNNC is highly likely to take on a leading role in developing Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy sphere.
Lukáš Lehotský/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Kazakhstan’s decision is highly likely to encourage continued divergence away from traditional economic and technological reliance on Russian support and reflects efforts to balance amid both Russia and China as competing regional powers.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The decision to partner with Chinese firms in Kazakhstan is also likely to influence similar projects in other countries in Central Asia, such as Uzbekistan, which is looking for sustainable long-term partnerships to develop its nuclear power industry.
Similar to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is likely to choose Chinese partners due to more cost-effective financing and reduced geopolitical risk in light of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Long-term (>1 year)
As a country with 14% of the global uranium reserves, this project is highly likely to indicate the beginning of a rapidly developing nuclear energy industry in Kazakhstan and a more sustainable commitment to the country’s net-zero 2060 targets.
There is a realistic possibility that Kazakhstan can use nuclear power to overcome the challenges of increasing domestic energy demand while decarbonising the power sectors.
