Calling for Change? Setting the Scene for the 2024 UK General Election
Thomas Graham | 11 June 2024
Summary
The UK 2024 General Election has been announced, as Labour leads the polls with 45% of the vote.
The economy, NHS, immigration, and security are among the top issues British voters deem a top priority.
Conservative and Labour policies diverge on traditional left—and right-wing economic lines, but they align on more conservative socio-cultural values.
The date for the 2024 UK General Election has been announced by incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and will see British citizens go to polling stations on 4th July. After an eclectic term which began with a landslide victory of 365 seats for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson, policy challenges have involved three different Prime Ministers, a global pandemic, the finalisation of Brexit, a new war in Europe, and a cost of living crisis. Opposition leader Keir Starmer has toiled to criticise Tory’s handling of these issues, with the exception of the UK’s support for Ukraine, and transform the Labour Party after Jeremy Corbyn’s defeat in the last General Election. Seeking to distance the public’s perception of the party from the hard-left, the liberal organisation which ran in 2019, Starmer realised, much like Johnson, that the average British voter leans conservatively on social values and left-wing on economic policy – proof of this shift was his claim in 2023 that “Labour are the real conservatives”.
Starmer’s reformation of the Labour Party took a fairly hardline approach over the years, from suspending Corbyn and Diane Abbot MPs, to expelling hard left groups from the party, such as ‘Resist’ and ‘Socialist Appeal’. Although it remains to be seen if the British public will be convinced by this renewed Labour, initial results look favourable. On 22nd May 2024, Labour was polling at 45 percentage points of the total vote, one point higher than Johnson had gathered for his landslide victory in 2019. A Labour majority is the most likely outcome, while models diverge on the precise number of seats. Labour’s ‘missions’ and the Conservative’s ‘priorities’ highlight the main topics concerning British voters in this election cycle.
Brexit and Scottish Independence
This time around, the issue of Brexit is off the table, rarely mentioned in British politics and accepted by Conservatives and Labour. It is quite likely buried next to ‘indyref2’ , as Starmer initially seeks to stabilise the country. Recent turbulence in the Scottish National Party, which saw the arrest of ex-Leader Sturgeon’s husband on charges of embezzlement from the party and the recent departure of her successor, Humza Yousaf, has also contributed to a weakening of support for independence.
Economy and Standard of Living
Labour and Conservative economic policies promise to lower inflation and increase the standard of living. These are hardly surprising propositions after inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 and the country faces a cost of living crisis. Differences between the parties’ policies are traditionally divided between left and right-wing economic lines, as Labour pushes for the nationalisation of key industries, such as clean energy and railways, while Conservatives seek to promote growth by cutting taxes and reducing debt. The NHS also features in both party’s pledges as a valence issue for British voters, currently holding an 18-week waiting list for ‘non-urgent’ treatments.
Security
After cutting 20,000 police positions across the country between 2010 and 2019, the Conservatives kept to the pledge of recruiting an additional 21,000 officers since 2019. This decrease in police visibility, alongside the murder of Sarah Everard by a police officer on duty in 2021, likely contributed to a lower perception of public security in Britain, with only half of the population believing that the police are conducting their job effectively. The situation has encouraged Labour to take harsher stances toward crime, including pledges for more community police officers and tougher sentencing for minor crimes, while the Conservatives promise more funding for local councils to allocate in combating criminal activity.
Immigration
Immigration, as the fourth highest issue of concern for Brits in 2024, has prompted different policy responses from each party. Conservatives seek to continue the deportation of illegal migrants to Rwanda, a plan which has been challenged by the UK Supreme Court in 2023, and ‘stop the boats’ illegally crossing the channel. Labour has pledged to create a new task force to return illegal immigrants and break up the human-trafficking gangs transporting them. Taking a tough stance on this issue could prove a challenge for Starmer, not only due to his former position as a human rights lawyer, but also in Labour MP’s favourability in relaxing barriers for the entry of asylum seekers.
Foreign Policy
Westminster’s foreign policy has remained cohesive across the two main parties since 2019, highlighting support for Israel and the provision of material assistance to Ukraine. Starmer’s shift from the party’s previous pro-Palestinian stance has disgruntled the harder left-wing elements of Labour, which culminated in the suspension of Andy McDonald MP for utilising a contentious phrase associated with antisemitism at a Palestinian march in London and a rebellion by 56 MPs over Starmer’s Gaza War position. This policy change is likely related to attempts to distance Labour from its failure to handle antisemitism allegations under Corbyn.
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Forecast
Short-term
It is highly likely Labour will achieve a majority in Parliament this upcoming election, bringing the party back into power for the first time since 2010.
Medium-term
Pending a Labour victory, Britain can expect the nationalisation of key industries and government-centralised initiatives to increase police security and reduce immigration.
Long-term
A conservative-leaning Starmer premiership is likely to be marked by disagreements with a large proportion of Labour MPs on issues such as immigration and foreign policy, while his ability to control the party will undoubtedly increase the chance of retaining power in the next election.
