Barrack Outlines Trump Plan: Lebanon Caught Between Israel and Hezbollah
By Neil Robertson | 19 November 2025
Summary
US Ambassador Tom Barrack’s recent remarks signal a Trump Administration strategy to reshape the Middle East, with Lebanon at the forefront of ambitions.
By alluding to the chance of renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon, Washington conveys its belief that Beirut has a role to play in managing Hezbollah to limit the chances of escalation.
Lebanon risks renewed conflict ahead of 2026 elections. Barrack’s comments signal further marginalisation for Lebanese Christians in the long-term.
Context
In the wake of the Gaza Peace Summit at Sharm el-Sheikh in early October, United States (US) envoy to Syria and Turkey, Tom Barrack, has outlined the Trump Administration’s wider intended regional strategy for the Middle East. In an extended post on X, published on 20 October 2025, Barrack signalled US expectations that Saudi Arabia and Syria would normalise ties with Israel.
Turning to Lebanon, which he described as ‘The Second Frontier’, Barrack expressed frustration at the lack of progress made towards disarming Hezbollah before the US-imposed deadline in January was reached. Barrack insists that the continued existence of the group “undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty, deters investment, and erodes public confidence and is a constant red flag to Israel”.
Furthermore, Barrack suggested that should Lebanese authorities fail to move against Hezbollah, then a “major confrontation” between the group and Israel was likely before the May 2026 elections. Implicit in this statement is the growing frustration felt by the current US administration towards the Lebanese government. The Jerusalem Post reported Barrack as saying that should the Lebanese state fail to act against Hezbollah, then, “Lebanon will be left to its fate, and remain that way for a long time, with no one to help.”
Implications
Vyacheslav Argenberg/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Barrack’s comments signal a likely US willingness to accept increased Israeli action against Hezbollah.
Increased Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon are almost certain.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The risk of limited Israeli–Hezbollah escalation along the southern border is highly likely to rise, particularly as the January disarmament deadline passes without progress.
Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure inside Lebanon are likely and may spread to Beirut, prompting temporary displacement and economic disruption.
Long-term (>1 year)
Hezbollah may be motivated to disrupt the May 2026 elections to give it more time to re-group.
Realistic possibility of institutional breakdown should elections be delayed. Christian factions are likely to be motivated to become more militant if security cannot be guaranteed.
