Bangladesh Political Crisis
Ranson Lo | 22 August 2024
Summary
PM Sheikh Hasina resigned on 5th August and was escorted to India, following weeks-long student protests against the court’s decision to reinstate public job quotas for descendants of those who participated in the independence movement in 1971.
Hasina’s resignation, despite presenting the potential for a new democratic government, heightened political risks as a military coup remains a realistic possibility.
As talks between the interim government, protesters and military are ongoing, the situation remains volatile. This is underlined by the looming economic crisis and escalated ethnic tensions and dissent against the Hindu minority.
Sheikh Hasina, the 76-year-old Bangladeshi PM, resigned on 5th August and fled to India amid nationwide protests. Soon after Hasina's departure, an interim government was formed, with the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a long-term exile and dissident, heading the administration until the next election. However, there remain doubts about military influence and potential coups, as Bangladesh has experienced remarkably 30 coups since its independence in 1971.
The current wave of protests was sparked by the court’s decision to reinstate quotas for government or state jobs in late July, as a portion of these roles are preserved for descendants or relatives of those who fought to secure Bangladesh's independence against Pakistan in 1971. The quotas are expected to worsen the already high youth unemployment rate on top of the high inflation rates. This resulted in student-led protests that soon spread from Dhaka across the nation. The protests, despite crackdowns from security forces with over 400 deaths, shifted the army’s support away from Hasina over time, ultimately resulting in her removal.
Hasina governed the country in 20 out of the last 30 years with the Awami League before being ousted, having most recently clinched her fifth term in January 2024 in a boycotted election. Bangladesh experienced significant democratic backsliding during her reign, as the country’s freedom index ranked 41 out of 100, and was labelled as “partly free” by the Freedom House. Apart from the rampant corruption and repression of freedom of expression and media, Hasina’s autocratic tendencies were demonstrated with the imprisonment of Khaleda Zia in 2018, the former PM and leader of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and banning Jamaat-e-Islamic from running in elections.
Although the Bangladeshi economy grew by an average of 6.6% per year in the 2010s, the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing global conflicts impeded economic growth. These external factors were particularly impactful for the country, as a proportion of Bangladesh’s economy is constituted by the production and exports of garment products, with the said industry accounting for over 80% of its export revenue. Lowered exports resulted in a heightened foreign debt, reaching over USD 97 billion in the first quarter, with the S&P further lowering its sovereign debt ratings from BB- to B+.
Apart from the looming economic crisis, the political situation remains tense as ethnic tensions remain high between the Bangladeshis, who are predominantly Sunni Muslims, and the 13 million Hindu minorities. The country experienced a series of communal violence and anti-Hindu violence in October 2021, with disinformation being circulated on social media platforms currently further inciting inter-ethnic hatred.
Rayhan9d/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term:
The political situation remains precarious, as the military remains with strong influence despite factional infighting between pro and anti-Hasina camps. There is an even chance for a coup as Bangladesh experienced 30 coups since 1971.
The ongoing economic crisis is unlikely to be resolved due to weaker demands for Bangladeshi garments, as foreign debt continues to pile on.
Businesses operating in Bangladesh, especially by Indian enterprises or Hindu communities, face increased operational and security risks due to recently amplified anti-Hindu sentiment.
Long-term:
Should a free and fair election be held to choose the next government, without being influenced or corrupted by the military, this will likely pave the way to improve civil liberties and democratic governance in Bangladesh.
Should the upcoming election to replace Hasina be influenced or controlled by the military, nationwide protest of the current scale will be expected.
