2024 Maldives Legislative Elections
Ranson Lo | 17 May 2024
Summary
All 93 seats of Rayyithunge Majlis (People’s Majlis, Parliament) were elected in the elections on 21st April, with the People’s National Congress (PNC) led by President Mohamed Muizzu winning a supermajority of 66 seats with a 60.43% turnout.
PNC’s landslide victory grants the Muizzu administration a stronger mandate for governance, especially regarding his flagship pro-China foreign policy of boosting economic development and aid at the expense of decades-long ties with India.
A stronger focus on climate policy is expected from the PNC, as Maldives is one of the most affected countries by climate change amid rising sea levels and increased frequency and severity of cyclones in the Indian Ocean.
The pro-China People’s National Congress (PNC) led by President Mohamed Muizzu, who was elected in the presidential election in November last year, won the parliamentary elections with a supermajority of 66 out of 93 seats in the People’s Majlis. Despite being one of the smallest island countries, Maldives play an increasingly important geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific region amid escalating China-India rivalry, as well as facing significant threats from climate change due to rising sea levels and worsening natural disasters.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: USD 7.2 billion (2023)
GDP per capita: USD 17,820 (2023)
HDI: 0.762 (2021)
Official currency: Maldivian Rufiyaa (MVR)
Demography
Population: 0.4 million (2023)
Religion (2020)
98.7% Sunni Muslims
Electoral System
93 seats in the unicameral People's Majlis are elected for five-year terms.
All seats are elected by first-past-the-post system in single-seat constituencies.
The People’s Majlis is responsible for amending and passing legislation proposed by the government, including the annual state budget.
Major Political Parties & Candidates
People's National Congress (PNC)
Won 66 out of the total 93 seats in the election, up from 3 seats in the last election in 2019.
Right-wing party that advocates for market reforms to improve competitiveness while taking a conservative stance culturally with the aim of strengthening the population’s Islamic identity.
Founded in 2019 and is currently led by President Mohamed Muizzu.
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)
Won 12 seats in the election, losing 53 seats from the previous legislature with weakened influence.
Centre-right, a member of the International Democracy Union, a global alliance of centre-right parties around the world.
Advocated for “India First” foreign policy under former leader President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih between 2018 and 2023.
Founded in 2001 and is currently led by Abdullah Shahid, the former President of the UN General Assembly.
In power twice in 2008-2012 and 2018-2023 after winning the first multiparty election in 2008.
Implications
From having merely 3 seats in the last legislature to winning a supermajority in this election, alongside the strong mandate granted to Muizzu’s government and the PNC, the results have indicated the preceding MDP government led by former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih was deeply unpopular among the population. Some of the contributing factors to MDP’s defeat were the poor human rights records and rampant corruption throughout Solih’s governance. The Maldives are a relatively newly established democracy in the past decade with weaker governance and democratic institutions, as suggested by Freedom House, the overseeing Anti-Corruption Commission remains ineffective in holding powerful and influential individuals accountable. The recently introduced 2022 Evidence Act was also introduced to further stifle the freedom of press and expression by forcing journalists to disclose sources. This is more likely to exacerbate corruption by making it less safe for whistleblowers to provide information. Journalists were also assaulted and arrested for reporting on the opposition protests in Malé in 2023, as the Maldives dropped from 72nd to 100th out of the 180 countries in the World Press Freedom Index in 2023.
On the other hand, the Maldives are also at the forefront of climate change facing severe threats from rising sea levels, as the archipelagos could be uninhabitable by 2050 based on research from the United States Geological Survey. Despite the MDP’s advocacy to strengthen policy and measures to address climate change, the previous government failed to consult local communities for development projects and undermined environmental regulations. MDP’s priority on developing the tourism-based economy at the expense of hefty environmental costs has also contributed to the party’s heavy defeat in this election to the PNC. However, despite the change of governments, it is unlikely that the PNC would provide significant improvements, as the expected increase in Chinese aid and loans, which have resulted in the degradation of governance due to unfavourable clauses as indicated by other Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Cambodia, Sri Lanka and across sub-Saharan Africa. The severe long-term environmental risks pose significant economic risks for the Maldives from the potential increase in climate-induced displaced population and casualties and property damages from natural disasters.
The supermajority, with over two-thirds of the seats in the parliament, grants the PNC stronger policymaking power. This removed any effective obstacles for Muizzu’s government to abandon MDP’s pro-India for a pro-China foreign policy as was advocated by his presidential election campaign last November. The switch in the diplomatic alignment puts the island nation as a new venue for contention amid the developing China-India geopolitical rivalry. The expected increase in Chinese presence and investment is very likely to be met with stronger attempts from India to regain a foothold in the country, which could create more favourable economic conditions for the local and foreign businesses operating in the country despite the escalating geopolitical tensions.
The President's Office, Maldives
Forecast
Short-term
The Muizzi government and PNC are almost certain to continue with their flagship foreign policy of aligning with China for more FDI and loans within the BRI to improve the Maldives’ infrastructure and economic prospects.
Long-term
Maldives faces an increased economic risk in the long run from the expected increased reliance on Chinese subsidies and loans, as the clauses are likely to be less transparent and detrimental to the country’s long-term growth with a slight possibility of falling into debt crisis as illustrated by Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Despite the change of governing party from the MDP to the PNC, the influx of Chinese loans is likely to worsen the country’s decades-long corruption problem, especially with regard to large contracts for building or improving infrastructure. The influx of capital would also likely strengthen the government’s control and further stifle the freedom of expression and press.
