Kira Persson | 17 April 2024

Summary

• India’s general election will be held from 19 April to 1 June 2024. With nearly 1 billion people eligible to vote, it will be the largest election in history.

• Opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win a third consecutive term, a record held only by India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

• With BJP’s marginalisation of minority communities and widespread crackdown on perceived opposition, there is fear of democratic backsliding in what is supposed to be the world’s largest democracy.

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 3.73 trillion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 2,612 (2023)

• HDI: 0.644 (2021)

• Official currency: Indian rupee (INR)

Demography

• Population: 1.429 billion (2023)

• Religion (2019)

  • 79.8% Hindu and 14.2% Muslim

  • 2.3% Christian and 1.7% Sikh

Electoral System

• 543 members are elected for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s bicameral parliament. Members of the Lok Sabha are directly elected from single-member districts in a first-past-the-post system.

• The Rajya Sabha, the upper house, has 238 members elected by the state legislative assemblies through proportional representation. Additionally, the president appoints 12 members for their contribution to art, literature, science, and social services.The President of India is the constitutional head of the parliament and can summon or prorogue either house. The president can also dissolve the Lok Sabha.

Major Political Parties & Candidates

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

  • The incumbent ruling party, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with 303 seats in the Lok Sabha.

  • Right-wing, Hindu nationalist party with the concept of Hindutva at its core — the vision of India as a Hindu nation. The BJP advocates for a muscular foreign policy and has a centre-right economic policy, promoting economic liberalisation, privatisation, and foreign investment.

• Indian National Congress (INC)

  • The main opposition party currently led by Mallikarjun Kharge, with 52 seats in the Lok Sabha.

  • Founded in 1885, it is one of the oldest and most prominent Indian political parties, having led India to Independence in 1947. Since then, it has been in power for over five decades. Six members of the Nehru-Gandhi family have ruled the party.

  • In the political centre of Indian politics, advocating for secular, democratic, and liberal values. It has a mixed economic model, promoting both public and private sectors.

On 19th April, India begins its general election — the largest ever held. Given the size of the electorate, the election will take place over several weeks. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeks a third consecutive term in office. Together with its allies, the BJP aims to get up to 400 out of 543 seats. This would give the party an unprecedented sway in Indian politics. The main opposition, the Indian National Congress (INC), has allied with other opposition parties and formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Some of the major issues at stake are economic development, unemployment, inflation, national security, social welfare policies, and foreign policy.

Opinion polls look favourable to Prime Minister Modi, who has been in power since 2014. He is particularly concerned with eliminating poverty and transforming India into a fully developed nation. He aims to double the economy and exports this decade and make India the third-largest economy in the world. Further, he seeks to secure a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. The diverse INDIA alliance has been a relatively weak opposition, largely due to internal rivalries and defections.

Southern states, including Kerala and Tamil Nadu, have rejected BJP in previous elections. These states are economically prosperous, ethnically diverse and have prominent regional leaders. They also speak languages unrelated to Hindi. To make inroads and secure a clear majority, Modi has paid multiple visits to the south and capitalised on corrupt local political dynasties. With a humbler background, Modi contrasts with many Indian politicians coming from dynastic families.

Much critique has been directed towards Modi and his Hindu nationalist agenda. Since he came to power, Hindu nationalism has become the dominant force in Indian politics. Modi’s government has stifled free expression and cracked down on opposition. Arvind Kejriwal, one of the most prominent opposition figures, is detained. The BJP continuously fuel divisiveness and communal violence by stigmatising minorities through rhetoric, policies, and practices.

Tax and legal authorities are frequently used to target perceived dissent. After having produced a documentary highlighting Modi’s lack of security provisions for Muslims, BBC had its offices in New Delhi and Mumbai raided by Indian tax officials. Arbitrary use of the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act, regulating foreign funding of Indian NGOs, has challenged the survival of many important (primarily faith-based, non-Hindu) organisations. In March this year, the INC accused Modi of obstructing its campaign by freezing bank accounts in a tax dispute. 

There is also scepticism regarding BJP’s ability to tackle political, economic, and social discrepancies in the country. Practices such as the politically motivated crackdown on civil society organisations will disproportionately affect poor communities and minority groups. Moreover, it will likely affect independent thinking, monitoring, and reporting. Similarly, the government has adopted laws giving it sweeping powers of unchecked surveillance, undermining privacy rights and online freedom of expression. In the face of the “Digital India” mission, arbitrary internet shutdowns have affected vulnerable communities.

Further, in 2019, Modi revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. In the aftermath of 1947, this status granted the region its own constitution, a state flag, and autonomy of internal administration. Modi describes the revocation as a testament to a more united India. Critics and Kashmiris, however, fear the decision attempts to alter India-administered Kashmir’s Muslim-majority demography and dilute its distinct identity. While Modi has done little to address the concerns of Kashmiris, he has invested in development projects and tourism in the region. Still, Kashmir faces systematic repression. Critics and human rights activists have been arrested on terrorism allegations. UN human rights experts have criticised the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) for targeting civil society and human rights defenders. Across Indian borderlands, the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) equips the army with coercive powers and shields it from being held accountable for human rights abuses.

One factor that has seemingly boosted Modi’s popularity is his foreign policy. India’s role in the world is an increasingly salient issue for ordinary Indians. Modi’s government has presented India as a leading global power in a multi-polar world. To ascertain this, it has pointed to India becoming the fifth largest economy globally, having hosted the G20 summit, its historic moon landing in 2023, and strategic and technology ties with the US. This narrative of enhanced Indian status globally is contrasted with that of the INC, saying India’s international image is damaged by the BJP’s repression and human rights abuses.

Modi has also pushed for economic reforms and sought to improve the ease of conducting business. The “Make in India” initiative aims to boost domestic manufacturing and attract foreign investment. From 2015 to 2020, India’s ranking has gone from 142 to 63 in the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ report.

Internationally, Modi has sought to build a better political, economic, and strategic relationship with the East, while also cultivating connections with the Middle East. India has maintained a cordial relationship with Russia and failed to condemn its atrocities in the war in Ukraine. Further, with China’s assertiveness, the West has increasingly turned to India. Hence, India has increasingly moved from its post-independence foreign policy of “non-alignment” to what is often called “strategic autonomy”. With its growing economy and strategic geographic location, India has been able to exploit cleavages in the international system. Additionally, the BJP’s ideology of Hindu nationalism is often seen as “muscular” — an assertive and militaristic nationalism with a tougher foreign policy, as seen in its approach towards terrorism and cross-border issues.

Modi’s Hindu nationalism has brought India further away from its post-independence tradition of secular democracy. Yet, his popularity, charisma, domestic and international ambition, and unique ability to market himself and his government, has convinced large parts of the Indian population that the success and revival of their country is in Modi’s hands. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • If Modi wins a third term, he is expected to double down on his reform agenda, simplifying tax structures, streamlining regulations, and creating a more business-friendly environment. Privatisation of public sector enterprises will likely continue. This could attract more foreign direct investment in various sectors. However, the pace and success of reforms will depend on the government’s ability to navigate economic challenges and opposition. Further, development gains may not trickle down to rural areas where many marginalised communities reside.

     

• Long-term

  • The election is likely to further polarise India socially and politically. If the BJP wins a clear majority, increased political power will allow a pervasive crackdown on opposition, human rights activists and marginalisation of minority groups. In the long term, it is also likely that states and regions demand greater autonomy. The BJP should strive to be more inclusive and accommodating by devolving more power and resources to state governments and respecting regional differences and aspirations. Western partners should pressure Modi to move in this direction if he wants to be seen as a legitimate global player.