Lily Donahue | 13 June 2024

Summary

• Croatia’s centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won the most election seats on 17th April. Despite this victory, it failed to win a majority and has since created a coalition government with an ultranationalist Homeland (DP) party.  

• The new coalition speaks to a right-wing swing in Croatian politics and the general emergence of populist nationalism within Europe. Should it not be possible for HDZ and DP to collaborate effectively, Croatian politics will likely stall, and corruption–already well-known and widespread—will remain unchecked.   

• DP has excluded several members of the Independent Democratic Serbian Party, a centre-left party focused on representing Croatian Serbs; anti-Serb sentiment is not infrequent. This move will undoubtedly frustrate Belgrade and potentially increase region-wide tensions–already inflamed on the Serbian-Kosovo border. 

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 82 billion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 21,401 (2023)

• HDI: 0.858 (2021)

• Official currency: Euro

Demography

• Population: 4 million (2023)

• Ethnic composition (2021)

  •  91.6% Croat, 3.2% Serb

• Religion (2019)

  • 79% Catholic, 3.3% Orthodox

Electoral System

• The Croatian Hrvatski Sabor is a unicameral body consisting of 151 members elected to 12 constituencies; members serve for a four-year term. 

• The 1990 constitution specified a minimum of 100 members and a maximum of 160. 

• Operating under a proportional representation system with preferential voting, Croatia utilises the ‘d’Hondt’ method for seat allocation, with an electoral threshold of 5 per cent.  

• Three seats are reserved for election by Croatians living in foreign countries and ethnic minorities elect eight.  

Major Political Parties & Candidates

• Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ/Hrvatska demokratska zajednica) 

  • Conservative, centre-right HDZ has been the prominent political party in Croatia since 2016, having existed since before the dissolution of Yugoslavia.  

    Headed by Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, HDZ emphasises Christian democracy. Though Plenković has overseen great economic growth and EU integration, corruption scandals have followed him for years. 

     

• Social Democratic Party (SDP/Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske) 

  • The second largest party, SDP is aligned with the centre-left and is the successor the Croatian League of Communists. 

    Unlike HDZ’s Christian underpinnings, SDP highlights liberal values, including immigration, climate change, and abortion rights. Zoran Milanovic, 

    Croatian President and former SDP head, however, has begun to lean towards Russia, to the frustration of EU-aligned colleagues. He has criticised weapons transfers to Ukraine and largely rejects EU involvement in Croatian politics. While these stances have isolated him amongst Croatian politicians, he has received increasing support from the public. 

• Homeland Movement (Domovinski pokret) 

  • The nationalist, far-right Homeland was founded in 2020 and is headed by Ivan Penava. Much of Homeland’s nationalists are former—and more radical—HDZ members. The party has been plagued with highly unsavoury and xenophobic allegations, including the use of Nazi-era slogans.

Croatian voters went to the polls on 17th April 2024, to elect members of the eleventh Sabor. Before the April elections, the HDZ had formed a coalition with the Independent Democratic Serb Party. A recent member of the Schengen zone, Croatia has been hindered by economic floundering: corruption is allegedly rampant and labour shortages widespread. It has the highest inflation rate in the Schengen area.  

HDZ is the largest voice in Croatian politics, largely responsible for adopting the Euro, and advocates the continuance of a westward outlook. Though HDZ won the most seats, making it a fourth victory, they also gained fewer seats than they had in the previous election (61 seats down from 66) and failed to gain a majority by 15 seats. Following HDZ came SDP (winning 42 seats), with Homeland coming third (12 seats). Liberal Most party won 11 seats, and the leftist-green Mozemo followed with 10.  

Eager to tamper HDZ’s power, Most and Mozemo advocated all other parties to create a coalition, a move which- if accepted - would have seen leftist Mozemo partner with ultra-nationalist Homeland. Homeland quickly declared it would not accept such an arrangement. Instead, Homeland emerged as kingmaker, but aligned with HDZ to form a conservative coalition; the partnership required three weeks of negations. Entering the government for the first time, Homeland will be heading the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Demography, and also partly responsible for the Ministry of the Economy.  

The fractioned allocation of seats will likely create a more fragmented parliament, potentially stalling future negotiations. It was not unanimously popular, with 79 ministers approving the coalition, and 61 against.

Though Plenković had initially made strides in removing radical right members from HDZ, his coalition with Homeland will see his party working with similar voices. (However, some cast-off former HDZ members flocked to Homeland.) Plenković is positioning himself for the European Union election in June. There is concern that should he be elected and leave Croatian politics, his more centrist voice will be replaced with stringent radicalism.  

Some, unhappy with Croatia’s rightward direction, have alleged that the way electoral districts are drawn and the use of the d’Hondt method (which tends to give more seats to larger parties), has allowed conservative parties to dominate.  

Though HD has gained prominence, Croatia’s current coalition will likely follow a pre-crafted centrist path; HDZ will most likely maintain its direction as a NATO-friendly, European-focused party. HD, also EU-supportive, is not expected to challenge these policies. Their increased prominence, however, could see an uptick in hate crime incidents. While these may begin as isolated events, should they remain unchecked, Croatia could suffer from increased racism and xenophobia.

Forecast

• Homeland will likely push HDZ towards a more nationalist, radical right position. Should Plenković move to Brussels, the government coalition will likely become even more rightwing. 

• Homeland’s insistence that the Independent Democratic Serb Party be excluded from government may anger the Serb minority. 

• Liberal voices will be largely muffled. However, HDZ claims it will continue control over the Ministry of Internal Affairs, meaning it will maintain its jurisdiction over immigration policies and minority affairs. If maintained, this could help mitigate some of HD’s ultra-conservative policies.