Alice Delhaye | 31 May 2024

Summary

• Xi Jinping visited France, Serbia and Hungary in early May 2024. Simultaneously, a cyberattack, likely conducted by China, targeted the UK’s military personnel.  

• In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s differential treatment of France, Serbia, Hungary and the UK crystallizes the political tensions between those European states. 

• China’s foreign policy is highlighting and intensifying the lack of unity within Europe. 

The first days of May 2024 marked Xi Jinping’s first visit to Europe since 2019. During the five-day trip, the Chinese President paradoxically broadcasted his vision of a multipolar world while simultaneously exploiting the tensions in the region.  

Xi Jinping first landed in France where he celebrated 60 years of Sino-French relations with his French homologue, Macron. The French President welcomed Xi Jinping with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, emphasising Europe’s unity. In the context of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Macron sought to speak on behalf of Europe, from a single voice, targeting China’s support for Russia. Indeed, with France advocating for a European strategic autonomy, the visit also reflected a shared vision between France and China seeking to move away from the American hegemony. 

Though seemingly championing a European power that would balance the United States’ influence globally, Xi Jinping’s subsequent visits to Eastern Europe revealed a different position towards Europe. The Chinese leader was warmly welcomed in both Serbia and Hungary, two countries whose support for Russia amid the conflict has created deep tensions within Europe. These events underline China’s exploitation of European divisions which is reducing Europe’s likelihood of becoming a united global power in this envisioned multipolar world. Moreover, Beijing’s presence in Serbia coincided with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, implicitly promoting the narrative of NATO as an assailant. 

Concurrently, China is suspected of conducting a cyber-attack, targeting a contractor of the UK’s Ministry of Defense. The attack concerned the names and bank details of current and former British military personnel. Though no information was tampered with, the UK is investigating whether information was copied. Though not proven yet, a Chinese cyberattack on the UK highlights China’s offensive position on the European state closely cooperating with the U.S.  

The wide-ranging differences in China’s behaviour towards the various European states – France, Serbia, Hungary and the UK – illustrates how China uses its foreign policy to exploit and rattle the tensions between those European states. While cooperation is growing exponentially with Serbia and Hungary, the UK is being targeted through cyber operations, fueling divisions between those European countries. Though the Chinese narrative is one promoting European autonomy and power, the actions of Xi Jinping demonstrate that China is actively rattling the tensions between European states. Ultimately, Xi Jinping’s behaviour towards Europe seemingly indicates that China is seeking to diminish the U.S’ influence in Europe, while concurrently preventing a united Europe, which would allow the Sino power to position itself as the global hegemon. 

Forecast

• Short to medium-term

  • China is likely to continue pursuing the strategy of weakening the transatlantic alliance as it aims to become the first power globally. 

• Long-term

  • Ultimately, China’s establishment as the global hegemon depends on the resilience shown by Atlanticists, and on the extent to which it succeeds in remaining united. The result of the upcoming European Elections may be an indicator as to whether the European Union is increasingly divided or not.