Marina Gruzer | 16 August 2024

Summary

• In July 2024, Kazakhstan hosted the Astana Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, where major developments such as the accession of Belarus and the adoption of the Astana Declaration were conducted. 

• The SCO, founded in 2001 by Russia, China and Central Asian states, has supported Central Asia in economic development, enhanced regional interconnectivity and established counter-terrorism initiatives such as the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS).

• While the SCO Summit is likely to elevate counter-terrorism efforts in Central Asia following escalating activity from extremist groups, the organisation is unlikely to act as a military alliance in the same way NATO does due to the diverse range of interests among members.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was established in 2001 by the founding nations of Kazakhstan, China, the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The SCO has since expanded its membership and currently represents 40% of the global population and contributes over $23 trillion to worldwide GDP. Primarily, the organisation focuses on issues of security, economic development and counter-terrorism, with all of these areas discussed in the July 2024 Astana SCO Summit. Member states, such as Kazakhstan, benefit from deepened economic and security cooperation. Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with the SCO partners increased by 56.5% over the last five years and the country has developed greater intelligence sharing and security coordination capability via the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). However, while the SCO provides opportunities for joint counter-terrorism initiatives, broader military coordination is unlikely due to competing interests between core members such as China, Russia and India. 

Groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) in Uzbekistan are among the main jihadi-insurgent groups in Central Asia. With escalating activity from similar groups, such as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP)’s attack at the Moscow concert venue, security concerns have grown in Central Asia and several ISKP-related arrests have been made in Kyrgyzstan in June 2023. The main implication for Central Asian security, resulting from the recent summit, is an increased commitment to counter-terrorism measures. This is reflected in the adoption of the Astana Declaration and the SCO Programme of Cooperation against Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism for 2025–2027, which included security initiatives such as enhanced coordination through RATS to combat the ‘three evils’ of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism. This would be an addition to existing security initiatives in Central Asia such as monitoring and creating databases on suspected individuals and organisations. Additionally, this implies more frequent joint anti-terrorism exercises such as the Eurasia-Antiterror 2023 exercise hosted in Kyrgyzstan for relevant SCO authorities. However, it is unclear how effective these initiatives will be in preventing terrorism in the long term. 

Outside the realm of counter-terrorism, it is unlikely that developments within the SCO, such as the accession of Belarus at the Astana Summit, will significantly elevate the organisation’s potential to become a military alliance like NATO. While the SCO played a role in establishing the initial post Soviet Sino-Russian collaboration, the diverse range of interests and geopolitical concerns across members limits organisational efficiency. For example, Russia and China may see the SCO as an opportunity to counterbalance NATO and the Western led order, but other major SCO powers such as India remain hesitant about taking the organisation into this direction. Furthermore, while the SCO has conducted joint military exercises, the organisation has not yet provided military support in actual conflict. Therefore, with Central Asian powers prioritising economic development and counter-terrorism initiatives, the SCO is unlikely to form into an organised military alliance like NATO. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Kazakhstan's chairmanship at the Astana Summit is highly likely to have drawn Central Asia closer to the centre of attention within the growing organisation and allowed Kazakhstan to express concerns regarding economic development.

• Medium-term

  • The Astana Declaration and the new SCO Programme of Cooperation against Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism for 2025–2027 is fairly likely to result in heightened regional counter-terrorism collaboration, though it is uncertain how effective this will be in the long term. 

• Long-term

  • The SCO is highly unlikely to develop the role of a military alliance as an equivalent of NATO and pose significant security risks, due to a lack of concise vision for the organisation among members.