Jakub Gazda | 15 July 2024

Summary

• Within six days the Hungarian Prime Minister has carried out as part of his “Peace Tour”, visits  to the capitals of the warring nations; Kiev and Moscow, as well as the Chinese capital Beijing.

• Orbán’s initial visit on the 2nd of July to Kyiv,  shortly after Hungary assumed the presidency of the European Union, was met with positive reactions from both Western heads of state as well  foreign media. This is a positive step towards the counter-rehabilitation  of relations.

• However, the visit to his long-term political ally Vladimir Putin in Moscow was once again met with criticism, with Hungary’s partners questioning its position as an ally.

Viktor Orbán has become widely considered the “bad boy” of European politics, primarily because of his staunch Euro-sceptic attitudes coupled with Hungary’s democratic backsliding and a more than friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation, despite the full-scale war that  has been waging against Ukraine since February 2022. In contrast to his Russia-positive stance, Orbán's  position towards Ukraine has, been highly critical, with Hungarian officials often questioning Ukrainian territorial sovereignty in light of a potential military defeat, while issuing formal protests over alleged claims of Ukrainian authorities violating the rights of Hungarians  in the Western Region of  Zakarpattia. Therefores, the PM’s first visit to Kyiv and his meeting  with President Zelensky was seen as a positive surprise, with the potential of opening future political support to Ukrainian integration into the EU during Hungary’s 6-month presidency. Nonetheless, in a fashion typical to the Hungarian PM, his trip to Kyiv was primarily dominated by a proposal for an early ceasefire to the fighting in Ukraine. However,  this offer was once again refused by the Ukrainian government.

Despite Ukrainian refusal of the proposal, the second leg of Orbán’s trip  occurred on  5th of July in Moscow, with the continuation of talks for a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. With Orbán arguing that his special relationship with the Russian President made him the ideal politician who  could  bring the two warring parties to the negotiation table. Nonetheless, these attempts were met with stark criticism, with EU officials reiterating that Hungary has no mandate to negotiate peace procedures for the bloc, despite its presidency. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian foreign ministry criticised the visit and ceasefire proposal for not being consulted with Kyiv.

Nonetheless, on 8th  July, continuing his “Peace Tour”, Orbán made an unexpected visit to Beijing to meet  the Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Similarly to his prior Moscow visit, the head of state discussed a settlement of the conflict in its current situation, thus largely favouring Russian territorial gains. The positive atmosphere of the meeting in Beijing has once again reinstated a long-term  trend observed in Hungary's foreign policy, with the PM having a friendlier relationship with the authoritarian leaders of the world than his formal allies in the EU and NATO.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • In the coming days and weeks it is highly unlikely, due to the nature of the ceasefire proposed by Orbán that his plan will come  to fruition, due to the declared opposition of the Ukrainian government, nonetheless it is likely that we will see the proposal being used by Russian politicians and media as a sign of wavering European commitment to its ally and war fatigue.

• Medium-term

  • Despite the initial positive reactions thanks to the visit to Kyiv, Viktor Orbán’s “Peace Tour” has likely soured the impression of the Hungarian EU presidency from  it's  beginning, with European heads of state as top EU executives, voicing their concern over the PMs decision to fraternise with Vladimir Putin. Therefore for the next six  months, it is highly likely that we will witness an  EU presidency which will be met with high levels of scepticism and mistrust from  the majority of EU partners.

• Long-term

  • Viktor Orbans has angered a sizeable portion of Hungary’s allies with his solo endeavour, however considering the PM’s experience with navigating between his nation’s geopolitical position and his personal political companions, and with the looming return of Donald Trump into office, it is highly unlikely that Hungary will face any more political isolation than it has till this point.