Johannes Jansen | 13 August 2024

Summary

• The arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine, supplied by some NATO states, marks a key moment in Ukraine's defence against Russia in the ongoing war.

• While the limited number of F-16s will not drastically shift the balance of power, their deployment boosts morale, strains Russian resources, and allows for deeper strikes into Russian-held territory.

• Short-term impacts will be limited, but as more jets arrive, Ukraine could see strategic gains, though a major shift in the war due to F-16s alone is unlikely.

The arrival of fourth-generation F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine, announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 4th August 2024, marks a crucial milestone in Ukraine's defence against Russia. These advanced US-made aircraft, supplied by a coalition of Western nations including Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium, have been eagerly debated and awaited since the start of the war. Despite Russia's air superiority, Ukrainian air defences continue to contest the skies, forcing Russian aircraft to rely on long-range missile and glide bomb strikes. On 8th August, F-16s were reportedly sighted near the frontline in southern Kherson, close to Kakhovka, according to a Russian-installed official.

The deployment of F-16s, with six reportedly in Ukraine so far and 60 more expected, holds significant symbolic and tactical importance. Renowned for their versatility and reliability, these jets are expected to bolster Ukraine’s air defence, by providing close air support, and potentially striking distant Russian targets with precision. Their arrival is timely, as Russia intensifies its summer offensive, particularly in the Kharkiv region. However, the effectiveness of the F-16s will depend on the armaments they receive and the proficiency of Ukrainian pilots, who have undergone much shorter training, compared to the three years of their Western counterparts. The jets could be equipped with advanced weapons like the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), enabling longer-range engagements of Russian troop concentrations and critical infrastructure, while reducing exposure to Russian air defences. However, uncertainties remain about the timely supply of these munitions. Moreover, Russia's advanced air defence systems and fighter jets, such as the Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57, pose significant threats. Russia has already begun targeting bases with suitable runways, adding further complications to the maintenance, logistics, and operational support of these aircraft in a conflict zone.

Regarding the implications, the limited number of F-16s currently in Ukraine is insufficient to dramatically shift the balance of air power, as 12 squadrons (over 200 planes) would be required. However, their deployment boosts morale, strains Russian military resources, and may force Moscow to adjust its strategy, potentially giving Ukraine an edge in critical battles. The F-16s' advanced radar systems and long-range missile versatility, including the Storm Shadow, enable strikes deep into Russian-held territory, adding a new dimension to the conflict and possibly influencing Russia's political and military decisions. While using the jets to support Ukrainian infantry and armour carries high risks, they will likely be employed to intercept Russian missiles and drones, suppress enemy air defences, and strike critical military infrastructure. The presence of F-16s also simplifies resupply efforts for NATO partners and signals NATO's commitment to Ukraine. To protect these valuable assets, Ukraine may store some jets on foreign bases, despite Russian threats to target NATO facilities hosting them. Although not a silver bullet, the F-16s significantly enhanced Ukraine's military capabilities at a critical moment in the war.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Ukraine will likely begin air interdiction and defensive counter-air missions, while Russia will focus on targeting F-16 airstrips in Ukraine. The effectiveness of the F-16 will highly likely be limited in the short-term, though some tactical advancements could be visible. 

• Medium-term

  • With more planes, Ukraine will likely begin suppressing enemy air defences, leading to the first losses due to Russian air defences and air-to-air combat. The first strategic gains will likely be visible at this stage.

• Long-term

  • If supplied on time, Ukraine will possess more planes and experienced pilots, enhancing the effectiveness of its air force. Ukrainian skies will likely become increasingly contested, complicating Moscow’s operational strategy. A strategic turning point in the war due to the F-16s alone is improbable.