Jeanne-Mây Desurmont | 14 November 2024

Summary

• The United Nations ended its Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) on October 31, 2024, transitioning to the new UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) on November 1, as per UN Security Council Resolution 2753. This shift responds to the Somali government’s request for national ownership over security and governance.

• Yet, Somalia continues to face severe political, security, and economic issues, with Al-Shabaab’s control of territories, frequent attacks, and climate-induced crises leading to widespread displacement, food insecurity, and a high reliance on humanitarian aid.

• In the short term, there is a risk of increased instability and humanitarian crises due to the withdrawal of UNSOM and reduced international oversight. The long-term success of UNTMIS will depend on effective collaboration with Somali authorities to establish sustainable security and development conditions

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) ended on the 31st October 2024 and has been replaced by the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) as of the 1st of November in line with resolution 2753 of the Security Council. In May 2024, the Somali government asked the U.N. Security Council to end the UNSOM, alongside the withdrawal of the 10,000 soldiers deployed under ATMIS (UN-mandated African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) to hand over the country’s security to the Somali government. The reasons behind these decisions are not clear but the Somali officials have mentioned the need for national ownership and agency as the government has previously accused UNSOM of interfering in internal and domestic affairs. After resolution 2753, the U.N. Security Council has highlighted in a press statement that this change “reflects the progress in the country and is also in line with the requisition of the Federal Goverment of Somalia for a 2 year transition of UNSOM’s functions to the United Nations Country Team by October 2026”. While the exact mandate of UNTMIS has not been defined yet, the handover already began in November, prioritising support for state-building, promotion and protection of human rights and the rule of law. 

Despite a decade-long presence of UNSOM, Somalia is still experiencing significant political, security, social and economic challenges exacerbated by difficult climate conditions such as repeated droughts and floods. As a political mission of the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, its overarching mandate was to assist the Federal Government of Somalia to achieve peace, stability and reconciliation. However, the security turmoil and the important humanitarian crisis affected the Mission’s ability to implement its mandate which leaves UNTMIS with a complex and vulnerable environment. 

In the security domain, the terrorist group Al-Shabaab is still active and is controlling large areas of territory. In the controlled areas in southern and central Somalia, the group is maintaining a shadow government as well as providing some degree of basic services. Al-Shaabab is also exploiting the divisions between the different clans and controlling the different supply chains. Thus, the terrorist group is constantly undermining the state-building efforts. In addition, recent attacks have demonstrated the capabilities and the reach of the terror group like the targeting of the protected Mogadishu airport zone or the forward operating base of ATMIS. The most recent attack happened last August when Al-Shaabab killed more than 30 people at a beach near Mogadishu in a suicide attack. 

Despite a decade of UN mandate, the humanitarian situation is still worrying and exacerbated by climate shocks and internal displacement. Somalia has been experiencing persistent and periodical droughts, increasing the threat of famine and as of 2022, more than 90 per cent of Somalia is experiencing severe climate conditions, 7.8 million are requiring some form of humanitarian aid or protection assistance while 7.1 million Somalis are considered food insecure. The population heavily relies on humanitarian assistance and more extreme climate shocks such as droughts and floods are expected to increase in severity and in intensity. The climate conditions are also fuelling the rates of internal displacement which in turn increase the competition over resources and space in the urban centres. The current humanitarian situation is also rooted in the country’s low level of development; actually, 70 per cent of the population is living below the poverty line. 

Political upheavals also fragilised the UNSOM’s mandate and effectiveness. As peacekeeping missions are highly dependent on the domestic political context, the political disagreements between the Federal Government of Somalia and the federal member states are decreasing their collaboration and coordination across key and urgent issues. The main tensions lie in the federal government’s agenda and the individual states’ autonomy. 

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Security and humanitarian aid are the main concerns linked to the termination of UNSOM. There is a relatively high probability that armed groups will profit from the military and humanitarian vacuum to either increase their disruptive activities or assert their control over the distribution of aid resources. Those concerns are increased by the volatility of the federal government and the lack of coordination with federal states. There is also a high risk of a decrease in the already difficult living conditions of the population given its dependence on humanitarian aid, as such the UN has encouraged other states to individually scale up their humanitarian support in Somalia.

• Long-term

  • While the end of UNSOM is a test for the Somali government and resilience, it is also a test for the effectiveness and efficiency of the transitions from the UN special political missions to UN country teams. This will require an intense collaborative effort between the national authorities and UNTMIS to agree on the conditions that must be met to ensure some degree of sustainability from the 10-year mission.