Thomas Graham | 1 February 2024

Summary

• Latest episode of violence in Ecuador is part of a widespread trend across Latin America.  

• Organised gangs have become prominent malign actors in Central and South America, bolstered by a growing international drug and arms trade.  

• The proliferation of armed gangs will continue to see the deterioration of government’s ability to provide public services and security to Latin Americans.  

Another incident of gang violence in Latin America, on 10th January 2024, saw men armed with automatic weapons and grenades storm a TV station broadcasting live in the Ecuadorian city of Guayaqil. Far from an isolated event, violence perpetrated by organised groups is an endemic problem in Central and South America. Gang-perpetuated homicides numbered 21,865 in 2021 alone, although the real number of casualties is likely to be much higher. The gangs represented by the cartels in Mexico, Red Command and Capital Command in Brazil, and the latest perpetrators in Ecuador, are increasingly emboldened by a thriving international arms and drugs trade extending as far as Croatia, Slovenia, and Turkey. 

A week after the incident in Guayaqil, reports emerged that one of the prosecutors investigating the attack was publicly murdered. Emphasis should be placed on the relative impunity to which these organised gangs have become accustomed, pushed as far as to the carving of territories in which national police forces are fearful to enter. These gangs can largely be attributed to increases in crime, especially shootings, robberies, and the killing of public officials, generating a public sense of insecurity which has come to permeate the day-to-day lives of Latin Americans. Not only warring with the police but also amongst themselves, further waves of gang violence are inevitable.

Forecast

• Short-term: The proliferation of organised crime will continue to increase, unless governments across Latin America enact harsher domestic measures to punish perpetrators and cooperate to identify transnational groups. 

• Medium-term: Demand for drugs and illegal arms in Latin America risks strengthening black market suppliers operating in Europe.  

• Long-term: Gang-related homicides, intimidation, and corruption will intensify for the foreseeable future, advancing the erosion of civil society with lasting consequences to the efficacy of public services and provision of security.